Philip Bump: “The polling averages from 538 indicate that the last time a Democrat was faring as poorly in national polling at this point in a race was 2000, when George W. Bush had a large lead over Al Gore. At every other equivalent point from 2004 to 2016, the Democrat was leading, by one to six percentage points. In 2020, Biden was up nearly 10 points on Trump. Now, he trails by two points.”
“At the state level, things don’t get much better. The relative paucity of state polling means that the averages compiled by 538 are derived to some extent from national polls. But across swing states — and even including Minnesota, which Biden won easily in 2020 — the race is tied, or (more often) Biden trails…”
“This is the sort of position that would normally prompt a campaign to engage in some dramatic change. That could be in the cards for Biden’s campaign, certainly — including the unusual possibility that Biden ultimately isn’t his party’s nominee.”
