Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “So far, 5 states—Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, and South Dakota—have confirmed abortion rights measures for this fall’s ballot. Based on signature submissions announced so far, measures seen as likely to make the ballot are in Arizona, Missouri, and Montana. Measures in Arkansas and Nebraska could as well.”
“The pro-abortion rights side has notched a perfect 7-for-7 record since Roe was overturned. But 2024 presents a new challenge: Every previous measure since Roe fell has been on the ballot during a relatively low turnout election. By contrast, this year’s measures will face a presidential-level electorate, something that could aid the anti-abortion side, particularly in solidly red states.”
