The top U.S. diplomat said Hamas is the only obstacle to securing an agreement, despite concerns that both the militant group and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may find ways to scuttle the three-part proposal sponsored by the United States, Egypt and Qatar.
Hamas has yet to provide a formal response to the proposal, which includes a six-week cease-fire; the withdrawal of Israeli troops from heavily populated areas of Gaza; the freeing of all women, elderly people and children held hostage; and a surge in humanitarian aid to the starving enclave.
Blinken made the remarks after a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi in Cairo, his first stop on a four-country swing through the Middle East aimed at boosting support for the proposed deal and brokering agreements on how Gaza will be governed once the fighting stops.
In a meeting with Netanyahu later Monday, Blinken reinforced the deal’s benefits, including that it could lead to de-escalation in Israel’s tit-for-tat violence with Hezbollah and ease tensions with other Arab neighbors.
“He reiterated that the proposal on the table would unlock the possibility of calm along Israel’s northern border and further integration with countries in the region,” said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.
Blinken’s efforts are complicated by Israel’s raid Saturday that freed four hostages but killed more than 200 Palestinians, drawing an angry response from Hamas. Another wrinkle was the decision Sunday by Israeli minister Benny Gantz to quit the government over what he said was Netanyahu’s failure to create a long-term strategy for Gaza.
U.S. officials say Gantz, a centrist member of Israel’s war cabinet, had a moderating impact on Netanyahu, whose coalition represents the most far-right government in Israel’s history. With the resignation of Gantz and war cabinet observer Gadi Eisenkot, far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition who oppose the cease-fire deal are now jockeying for more influence.
The central sticking point in the negotiations is Hamas’s desire for a permanent cease-fire and Israel’s vow to continue fighting to achieve total military victory, a goal U.S. officials say is unattainable.
President Biden sought to break though that impasse in a May 31 speech that detailed the proposed three-part deal to bring about a “permanent end to the war.” U.S. officials hoped that by making the terms of a deal public and representing it as virtually indistinguishable from proposals already agreed upon by both sides, it could prevent Hamas and Israel from backing out.
But the strategy hasn’t paid off yet. Netanyahu responded to Biden’s speech by insisting that Israel won’t agree to a permanent cease-fire without the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capacity. Hamas, meanwhile, is pushing for more guarantees that the deal will lead to a permanent cease-fire, according to four officials who spoke to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive discussions.
The key U.S. official seeking to bridge this gap is CIA Director William J. Burns.
In discussions with Qatari and Egyptian officials last week, Burns instructed them to emphasize to Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh that international mediators would guarantee that negotiations over a permanent cease-fire would begin as soon as the third week of the deal’s first phase, officials said. Burns also asked that Egypt and Qatar underscore that the terms of a permanent cease-fire would be settled by the fifth week.
But those assurances were refused by Haniyeh, who insisted that Hamas would accept the deal only if Israel were to provide a written guarantee about a permanent cease-fire. Hamas wants the promise in writing in light of Netanyahu’s public remarks ruling out a permanent cease-fire, but few diplomats believe the Israeli leader would be willing to accept such a request.
Frustrated by Hamas’s demand, U.S. officials have urged Qatar and Egypt to ramp up pressure on Hamas to accept the current proposal. As a result, Qatari and Egyptian officials told Haniyeh that he and other Hamas officials would be asked to leave Qatar if a deal is not reached, officials said.
Inside the U.S. government, there are mixed assessments about the prospects for an agreement. Pessimists point out that the ultimate decision comes down to Hamas leader Yehiya Sinwar, who is believed to be in Gaza’s vast tunnel network. Some U.S. officials say Sinwar won’t agree to a deal because it would ultimately lead to the disbandment of Hamas. The militant leader sees the war as achieving his goal of further isolating Israel on the world stage and he may prefer to die a martyr’s death, officials argue.
Optimists say Israel’s raid to free four hostages showed that the Jewish state can liberate hostages with or without negotiations. They point out that Sinwar can be viewed as a hero for securing a deal that sees the release of hundreds of Palestinians in Israeli prisons, another aspect of the current deal on offer. U.S. officials feeling bullish about a deal believe that if Hamas responds with a proposal with only minor modifications, the Israelis will accept it.
Blinken offered a hopeful assessment Monday.
“Our Egyptian counterparts were in communication with Hamas as recently as a few hours ago,” Blinken told reporters after leaving his meeting with Sisi. “Egypt, the United States, other countries, believe that we should be able to get to ‘yes.’”
After his visit to Egypt, Blinken will visit Israel, Jordan and Qatar. “This is a critical moment because we see the possibility, we see the prospect of an immediate cease-fire,” Blinken said.
