The biggest horse race of the flat season in the British calendar takes centre stage next weekend as all eyes turn to Epsom Racecourse.
The History Of The Derby
The Derby goes as far back as 1780. The race gained its name from the 12th Earl of Derby. The race next weekend will be the 246th Derby. The Derby is Britain’s richest flat race and the most prestigious of the five classics. The classics consist of the 2,000 Guineas, 1,000 Guineas, The Oaks, The Derby, and St Leger Stakes.
The Derby has sprung up some unforgettable moments. Famously in 1913, Suffragette Emily Davison ran onto Epsom racecourse and was struck by King George V’s horse Anmer which Herbert Jones rode. The collision caused the jokey significant injuries, one of which resulted in his arm being in a sling for some time afterwards. The horse walked away from the incident but unfortunately, Emily did not. Emily Davison died four days later in hospital as a result of her injuries.
Records In The Derby
Lester Piggott has won this race nine times. He won this race more than any other jockey. Lester’s first win came on Never Say Die back in 1954. 29 years later, he won his last on Teenoso.
Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien has trained the most winners in this historic race. Aidan has trained nine winners in the Derby. Galileo was his first which was back in 2001 and last year, Auguste Rodin got up under Ryan Moore to beat Roger Varian’s 66/1 long shot King Of Steel. That win made it number nine for Aidan O’Brien.
Who’s the Favourite for the Derby?
Aidan O’Brien’s 3-year-old colt City Of Troy is currently the 2/1 favourite for the Epsom Derby. Last October City Of Troy won the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket. The win at Newmarket was his first Grade 1 win. This came on the back of an impressive win in July 2023 when he won the Grade 2 Superlative Stakes. Despite being the favourite and likely to go off the favourite on the day, City Of Troy will be going into the race on the back of a disappointing run at Newmarket earlier this month. City Of Troy finished 9th in an 11-horse race which saw Godolphin’s 3-year-old Notable Speech win the 2000 Guineas. City Of Troy was the favourite for that race and went off 4/6 so his performance raised a few eyebrows.
Trainer Aidan O’Brien had this to say on City Of Troy’s run in the 2000 Guineas.
“Obviously we wouldn’t have brought City Of Troy here if we thought he was going to do that. It’s not his run but we’ll see what happened and why that happened. He got upset in the stalls which Ryan said was very unusual for him. He’s usually very calm but there you go. He was in last but he wasn’t in last by design, so it wasn’t that he was in there too long. Obviously that’s just the way the stalls fell”
A disappointing run, as in the build-up to the race, he was the hot favourite, as mentioned in the preview on World In Sport by Rob Norcup.
The run did come off the back of a 203-day break so maybe the horse needed the run to dust off any cobwebs. I don’t personally see the defeat as too big of an issue. 5 of the last 10 Derby winners all lost the race they ran before the Derby, that is including last year’s winner.
Behind City Of Troy in the market is Ambiente Friendly. Currently, 9/2, trainer James Fanshawe will be hoping he can land his first-ever win in the Derby. The 3-year-old won very impressively a few weeks ago in the Derby Trial Stakes at Lingfield and jockey Callum Shepherd was full of praise for the winner
Callum Shepherd after his win on Ambiente Friendly on the 11th May 2024.
“That was exceptional. I’ve been riding Ambiente Friendly in lots of his work and he had come on so much from his run at Newmarket. They were much quicker conditions here, which he was unproven on, but he handled it beautifully. I couldn’t speak highly enough of him – that was excellent. It felt to me like a proper trial. There was a nice even gallop and we got racing on the turn in, but I can’t believe how he split the field so comfortably”
Aidan O’Brien and City Of Troy jockey Ryan Moore will be fully aware of the danger Ambiente Friendly possesses after finishing behind him in the Derby Trial Stakes.
Ones to Watch
Currently Dancing Gemini holds an entry for this race and at this moment in time, Roger Teal’s 3-year-old Colt is available at around 14/1 which I think is silly odds. Dancing Gemini finished 2nd earlier this month in a very competitive race over in France at Longchamp. There are question marks over Dancing Gemini and whether he can stay a mile and a half but his Sire won a couple of times over that trip and so did his Dams Sire. Trainer Roger Teal was quite coy when asked about what was next for him
Roger Teal after Dancing Gemini’s run at Longchamp
“We’ll let the dust settle and then we’ll have a discussion. Whether Dancing Gemini will stay a mile and a half around Epsom or maybe do you come back here over a mile and a quarter – there’s lots to discuss. He’s always had that kick and maybe he might have too much speed for a mile and a half, and coming here might be the wise thing.”
Another horse that may go off smaller than what he is now Godolphin’s 3-year-old Colt, Ancient Wisdom. Trainer Charlie Appleby has won the Derby twice. Both wins came with a Godolphin horse and the last time he won this race was back in 2021 had the trusty William Buick on board.
Ancient Wisdom won the Kameko Futurity Trophy Stakes back in October. In that race, Ancient Wisdom beat Dancing Gemini, Gods Window, Deira Mile, and Diego Velazquez who all have entries in this race.
Just over a week ago, Ancient Wisdom finished 2nd behind Economics in the Dubai Dante Stakes. Economics has opted to go to Ascot and holds an entry for the King Edwards VII Stakes which is in June. It will be interesting to see if Ancient Wisdom follows suit. He does hold an entry for the King Edward VII Stakes.
My Verdict
I’m going to back the City Of Troy for the Epsom Derby. Okay, his previous run was disappointing but as mentioned in the preview earlier, it came off the back of a long break. He sets the standard here and if he can reproduce his Dewhurst Stakes form, and his Superlative Stakes form, he should give Aidan O’Brien his 10th Derby winner in the Epsom Derby.
For Each Way bets, I wouldn’t put anybody off Ancient Wisdom and Dancing Gemini. It’s not clear if these two will run in the race or if they will go elsewhere, but I do believe both will go off smaller odds on the day compared to what they are.
I’ve seen some people suggest Los Angeles for Aidan O’Brien. Despite winning all of his races so far, it’s hard to see what he has beaten. His biggest win came last time out in a win over in Ireland when he won by a length. He will be stepping up in the company he finds himself with in the Derby and I just think he won’t have what it takes to beat the likes of City Of Troy.
Image Credit: Unsplash
