Five factors to keep in mind ahead of NBA’s Game 7 doubleheader

We’ve all heard it before, the best two words in sports are “Game 7.”

Yet the basketball gods decided to challenge that claim by giving fans not one, but two Game 7s to conclude the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Both the New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers and Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves series come to a close through winner-take-all finales on Sunday.

Before we clear our calendars and bunker down to enjoy the Game 7 doubleheader, it’ll be good to understand how we got here. It’s pretty uncommon territory considering the last time New York played a Game 7 at Madison Square Garden was in 1995. Meanwhile, it’s been 20 years since Minnesota had an opportunity to make it to a Conference Finals by winning a Game 7.

And in case anyone wanted to take on the fool’s errand of trying to predict how these series end, sifting through the previous six games is our best hope.

Fans can watch the Pacers take on the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Sportsnet ONE and Sportsnet+ at 3:30 p.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. PT followed by the Nuggets hosting the Timberwolves at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+.

With that being said, here are five factors to keep in mind heading into Sunday’s slate of basketball action.

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It all comes down to Game 7 Sunday with a doubleheader featuring the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks squaring off followed by the Minnesota Timberwolves facing the Denver Nuggets. Watch the action live starting at 3:30 p.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. PT on Sportsnet ONE and SN+.

Broadcast Schedule

THIBODEAU’S TURN TO ADJUST

As scintillating as it’s been to see players on both sides of this matchup face off, the real battle has been between the two head coaches. Any neck-and-neck series usually comes as a result of adjustments and Knicks-Pacers is no different.

Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle was the first to shake things up, deploying Aaron Nesmith onto Jalen Brunson after the Knicks point guard carved up Andrew Nembhard through the series’ first two games. Brunson scored 43 and 29 points on better than 68 per cent true shooting in back-to-back wins for New York.

But once the longer and more physical Nesmith got matched up with the all-star, his efficiency dipped. Brunson scored 26 and 18 points through the next two games, as his true shooting plummeted to 43.8 per cent, and the Pacers evened up the series.

Then it was Tom Thibodeau’s turn to change the tides. His options may have been limited with how banged up the Knicks had gotten throughout the series, like losing OG Anunoby in Game 2, but the veteran bench boss knew something had to change.

So, he inserted Miles McBride into the starting lineup in place of Precious Achiuwa to space things out and give Brunson more room to operate. The move immediately worked as Indiana wasn’t able to help off McBride like they could Achiuwa, making it easier for Brunson to either take Nesmith on 1-on-1 or get switched off him with screens.

The 27-year-old Brunson dropped 44 points, his fifth 40-point game of the NBA Playoffs, as the Knicks waxed the Pacers by 30 points.

But again, Carlisle found a way to respond. What New York gained in spacing they sacrificed in size the other way.

Without the length of Achiuwa on the floor, Indiana fed the ball to his former Toronto Raptors teammate Pascal Siakam and let him get to work. The mid-season acquisition has been the most productive post-scorer in the NBA Playoffs this year and with matchups like Josh Hart or McBride, who give up a ton of height, Siakam had no trouble carving up the Knicks for 25 points, seven rebounds and five assists in a Game 6 win.

So, now the ball is back in Thibodeau’s court, figuratively and literally. The 12th-year head coach will need to figure out something if he plans on sticking with a smaller lineup for Game 7 to give his lead guard some breathing room. What that is, we’ll have to wait and see.

KNICKS’ MSG BUMP

Neither team has lost at home this series, and if you’re an Indiana fan, that doesn’t bode well for Sunday. Madison Square Garden is already a notoriously hostile environment to play in, but with that fanbase so close to their first Conference Finals appearance in nearly 30 years, it’ll be akin to a madhouse.

There’s also the fact the Knicks play better at home and the Pacers are worse on the road. And no, that’s not a shock, that’s usually how it goes. Why it matters for Game 7 is because New York’s offence appears to be the biggest swing factor in this series.

According to NBA analyst John Schumann, the Knicks’ offensive rating is 23.4 points better in wins against the Pacers compared to losses. And since they’ve only won at home in this series, that means their offence is significantly stronger at The Garden. For instance, Brunson shoots 54 per cent from the field at MSG as opposed to 39 per cent at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. But it’s not just him, every New York rotation player improves noticeably when playing in front of their home crowd. Hart’s scoring increases 10.8 points per game in New York versus on the road this post-season.

They call it homecourt advantage for a reason.

The Pacers’ potential saving grace lies in the fact Siakam has played better on the road these playoffs than at home. His top three scoring games in this year’s post-season have all been away from Indiana. Another indicator Siakam could be in for a big night.

POINT GUARD HEALTH

As good as Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards have been in the Nuggets-Timberwolves series, battling it out at the top, the biggest game-changers on Sunday will be their point guards.

The two No. 1 options have put up ridiculous stat lines practically all six games, which obviously helped their teams, but haven’t been as noticeable of swing factors as Jamal Murray and Mike Conley have — both of whom are battling injuries.

Murray has dealt with calf soreness for most of the playoffs and added to his ailments by picking up an elbow injury in Game 6. How healthy he is heading into Sunday will matter a ton because Denver’s success often relies on Murray’s efficiency.

The 27-year-old from Kitchener, Ont., may have hit two spectacular game-winners in round one, but he’s been underwhelming this post-season. Murray is averaging 19.3 points per game on a meagre 48.5 true shooting percentage, putting him practically at the bottom. And his poor shooting performances may not have cost the Nuggets against a less-talented Lakers team, but it’s hurt them in the second round.

In losses against Minnesota, Murray averages 11.7 points on 34.8 per cent true shooting. In contrast, in Denver’s three wins, he puts up 19.7 points on 55.6 per cent true shooting. Granted, some of the Canadian’s struggles have been a result of the Timberwolves’ exhausting defence, but it’s also been clear to see that Murray hasn’t been 100 per cent physically for much of the playoffs.

If his injuries limit him on Sunday, it won’t bode well for a Nuggets team that hinges much of its success on his shoulders, or in this case, his calf and elbow. Denver fans can at least find solace in the fact Murray has a knack for rising to the occasion. And whether he’s struggling in Game 7 or not, he’ll show no fear taking the biggest shots.

Meanwhile, Conley’s veteran leadership has been instrumental to Minnesota’s success. In Game 5 when the 36-year-old was out due to achilles soreness, the Timberwolves looked shellshocked en route to a 15-point loss.

When Conley’s not on the floor, Edwards has to take on much more on-ball responsibility and spacing shrinks dramatically, which leads to not-so-positive results for Minnesota.

The Timberwolves’ net rating is 10.1 points worse with the veteran guard off versus on in the playoffs. Edwards specifically sees a dip in efficiency as his true shooting drops over seven per cent without Conley sharing the backcourt with him.

Add to that the fact Minnesota is a plus-44 against Denver in this series when Conley is on the floor, the highest impact on the team, and it makes sense why Edwards very quickly gave the PG credit for their Game 6 win.

BATTLE FOR 100 POINTS

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? You apparently get Game 7 between the Nuggets and Timberwolves.

The Nuggets have been front-loaded, boasting a top-five offence thanks to their three-time MVP and a starting lineup that fits perfectly around him. On the other side, the Timberwolves have owned the No. 1 defence anchoring around four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and surrounding him with two-way players.

That battle between offensive and defensive philosophies has teetered around a threshold of 100 points. When the Timberwolves manage to keep the Nuggets below that mark, they’ve yet to lose. Inversely, when the Nuggets score 100 points or more against the Timberwolves, they’re undefeated.

That scoring line appears to be an indicator in this series of which team has the upper hand at a certain point in time. Through Games 1 and 2, it was clear the Timberwolves’ defence had the edge as they limited the Nuggets to 99 and 80 points on sub-50 per cent shooting in both contests. Notably, holding the duo of Murray and Jokic to a combined 25-of-70 from the field (35.7 per cent).

Yet, once Denver adjusted by moving Jokic and Murray up the floor and let players like Aaron Gordon bring up the ball more often, that Minnesota advantage vanished. The Nuggets shattered the 100-point threshold, rattling off three consecutive wins as they put up 117, 115 and 112 points.

In Game 6, Minnesota responded with a vengeance. They made their own adjustment by sending Karl-Anthony Towns onto Jokic as a first line of defence with Gobert roaming behind as a sweeper. It completely neutralized the Serbian big man’s ability to create for others as he finished with just two assists while Denver shot a lowly 30 per cent from the field and put up just 70 points in a 45-point loss.

Based on that, momentum appears to be back on Minnesota’s side. We don’t know if that’ll carry over to Game 7, but we do know if they can hold Denver below 100 points one last time, their chances of success look good.

WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF?

Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it. Well, if you’re a Pacers or Timberwolves fan, you’re probably okay with the past dictating the present.

Because the last time New York and Indiana met in a Game 7 the stakes were identical and it worked out for the visiting Pacers. Knicks’ legend Patrick Ewing missed a game-winning layup by the thinnest of margins costing his team a trip to the Conference Finals. Ever since that infamous moment in 1995, New York has been in search of a path to the third round, yet to find it 29 years later.

The Knicks at least have the fact they own a better record all-time (7-8) in Game 7s than the Pacers (3-6).

Meanwhile, Minnesota and Denver have never met in a Game 7. In fact, the Timberwolves have only played in one Game 7 ever. But that’s where history is on their side.

Twenty years to the day, the Timberwolves advanced to their first and only Conference Finals appearance by taking down the Sacramento Kings. In the first round that year, they beat Denver in five games.

And for an added bit of fun, the Timberwolves’ top player at the time was Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett, whose birthday happens to be May 19. Garnett might want to consider spending his wish on some luck for Conley, who is 0-4 for his career in Game 7s.

Denver will be banking on the fact they enter the game with more recent experience having played in four Game 7s since 2019 and winning three of them.

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