New polling from NBC News shows that RFK Jr. significantly cuts into Donald Trump’s support with Republican voters.
Via NBC News:
Trump leads Biden by 2 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, 46% to 44%, in the new NBC News poll
Yet when the ballot is expanded to five named candidates, Biden is the one with a 2-point advantage: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, Kennedy 13%, Jill Stein 3% and Cornel West 2%.
The big reason why is that the poll finds a greater share of Trump voters in the head-to-head matchup backing Kennedy in the expanded ballot. Fifteen percent of respondents who picked Trump the first time pick Kennedy in the five-way ballot, compared with 7% of those who initially picked Biden.
Also, Republican voters view Kennedy much more favorably (40% positive, 15% negative) than Democratic voters do (16% positive, 53% negative).
The poll has a 3.1% margin of error, so a two-point lead for Trump is actually nothing.
Video:
Something interesting in the new NBC News Poll. Forget the specific numbers because they are meaningless. The poll shows that RFK Jr, hurts Trump more than Biden. There is a swing toward Biden when RFK Jr is factored into the race. pic.twitter.com/kZl9qmBcuM
— Sarah Reese Jones (@PoliticusSarah) April 21, 2024
There are two numbers that are worth paying attention to. Joe Biden has gained five points since the last NBC News poll, which is above the margin of error of 3.1 points, and the four-point swing with RFK Jr. is factored in is also above the margin of error.
The trendline shows that President Biden’s momentum is real, and RFK Jr. is a huge problem for Donald Trump.
Biden’s supporters seem more locked in than Trump’s and if the ex-president gets criminally convicted, he might see support hemorrhage away. It would not be out of the realm of possibility for Trump’s support to fall into the thirties and back to his core MAGA base if he is criminally convicted.
Fox News, Newsmax, and Trump built up RFK Jr. under the promise that anyone from the Kennedy family would take support away from Biden, but RFK Jr. is hurting Trump. Even though members of his own campaign have stated that the goal is to return Trump to the White House, Republicans, not Democrats, are buying into the RFK Jr. campaign.
Trump has no money and is really not running much of a campaign, and now he’s got a third-party candidate peeling votes away from him.
RFK Jr, is backfiring on Trump and might get Biden reelected.
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