A majority of respondents — 61% — in the latest CNBC Delivering Alpha Stock Survey believe the broader market has run too far, too fast heading into the second quarter and a pullback is near. The S & P 500 is up more than 9% in the first quarter, which would be its best start to a year since 2019. However, just 39% think there’s more room to run. One of the biggest themes of the year so far for the market is the Federal Reserve and the assumptions it will cut rates three times in 2024. Just 9% of those polled think the Fed should start cutting rates immediately, while an overwhelming 91% advise Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to keep things slow and steady. The majority of respondents the survey — 61% — predicted the Fed would only cut rates twice this year. Only 26% still believe the Fed’s official forecast of three cuts is the magic number, and 13% said one rate cut was likely this year. None of those surveyed think the Fed will cut more than three times and none believe they won’t cut at all. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in the first quarter Overall on the Fed, 82% of those polled believe the central bank is doing a “good” or “excellent” job navigating the economy. Just 17% said “fair” while nobody said “poor” or “terrible.” The quarterly survey of 300 chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and other money mangers was conducted last week. There was an increase in the amount of people saying they believed a recession would hit in 2025. A majority of 52% believe that was likely, up from only 23% in the last quarterly survey. Thirty-nine percent said they saw “no recession in sight,” which is also higher than the 14% who believed it was unlikely in our survey last quarter. Where to invest Many overseas markets have recently seen record highs including Japan, the United Kingdom, continental Europe, Canada and South Korea. When asked where they were most bullish outside of the US, 40% said Japan, 26% said Europe and an equal amount said they would not invest outside of the United States. Just 4% believe China is the best place to invest outside of the US right now. The MSCI iShares China ETF is off 21% from the 52 week high it hit last March and down more than 7% in six months. When it comes to investing domestically 26% said the Nasdaq 100 was the best place to be compared to 13% from the S & P 500. Thirteen percent said oil and 9% voted for bitcoin, which is at record highs. When asked to pick their top three favorite sectors, 61% believe tech is the best place to invest right now. XLK YTD mountain Technology Select SPDR in the first quarter Sticking with tech, which has been hyper-focused on artificial intelligence, 39% believe it is time to sell out of AI related stocks. Investors said the area “has run too far.” About a fifth of respondents said it was too difficult to pick one AI stock and to put money into the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) instead. Meanwhile, 17% said “just buy Nvidia.” That stock is up 245% in a year and 120% in six months far outpacing every other stock in the S & P 500 except for Super Micro Computer . Where to hide If the stock market were to suddenly pullback 65% said they’d go to cash as a safe haven, 26% to bonds and 9% to high dividend stocks. None of those who responded favored gold, crypto or real estate. Over the last two years many investors favored the two-year Treasury. In order for it to be more attractive than stocks right now, 54% said rates would have to climb above 6%. That’s a pretty far jump from where we are now in terms of the yield on the two year which is at about 4.57% In the last decade, the S & P 500 has compounded at nearly 13% annually. More than a fifth of respondents, 22% believe it will continue to perform at an average of more than 10% a year in the next decade. The rest think we’re more likely to be in the 5%-to-10% range for an annual return for the S & P in the next decade.
