The winds of political momentum look to be shifting toward President Biden as Trump has a massive problem with Nikki Haley voters.
Some 39% of registered voters in the one-week poll, which closed on Wednesday, said they would vote for Biden, a Democrat, if the election were held today, compared with 38% who picked Republican former President Trump. Biden’s lead was within the survey’s 1.8 percentage point margin of error.
Many voters remain undecided, with 11% saying they would vote for other candidates, 5% saying they would not vote, and 7% saying they did not know or refusing to answer.
…
Trump had a marginal lead among all respondents, but Biden’s lead among registered voters was significant because people who are already registered to vote are more likely to do so in November. Only two-thirds of eligible voters turned out in the 2020 presidential election in which Biden defeated Trump.
No one should place too much faith in any single poll, but the Reuters poll was conducted over the course of a week with nearly 5,000 respondents. It wasn’t a quick poll taken with a small sample.
The poll is likely a more realistic look at where things stand right now. President Biden has a small advantage. There are a ton of undecided voters, and Trump has a massive problem with Nikki Haley voters.
Just 37% of Haley voters said that they would vote for Trump. Sixteen percent said that they would vote for Biden. The rest of the Republican voters suggested that they wouldn’t vote or they would vote for someone else.
Biden is not in nearly as much trouble as some of the other polls would suggest, but at this stage when the vast majority of voters aren’t paying attention, the incumbent holds a small advantage with voters who are most likely to vote.
The incumbent president has a fundraising advantage, no criminal charges against him, and much more upside than Trump.
It isn’t difficult to see the election going in the direction of more voters moving toward President Biden as Trump continues to run more toward the extreme right.
Spring has not yet arrived in this presidential election year, but the incumbent president has a visible path to a second term.
— Sarah Reese Jones (@PoliticusSarah) March 8, 2024
Biden is taking on Trump and his lies while showing the American people what he has done and what is at stake in 2024.
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