Jonathan Last: “If Kennedy is on the ballot, then everyone is going to find out exactly who he is and what he stands for. And they’re not going to like it.”
“If/when Kennedy’s anti-vaccine beliefs are tied totally to his brand name, then that +11 favorability number will head south.”
“But it won’t go to zero. He’ll still have supporters—it’s just that these supporters will be overwhelmingly Republican, because in the era of Trump anti-vaccine sentiment concentrated in the GOP… And within the Republican party, vaccine skepticism is not evenly distributed: It’s concentrated among self-identified MAGA Republicans.”
“Put this all together and I suspect that over time: RFK’s support will drop by >66 percent as his favorability number collapses. His remaining support will be disproportionately drawn from low-propensity, vaccine-skeptical MAGA Republicans. The net effect of his candidacy will be a slight drag on Trump’s number.”
