HelloFresh has warned the Germany-based meal-kit delivery company is likely to miss its “mid-term” revenue and profit targets.
Reporting relatively flat revenue for 2023 in preliminary figures last week, along with a decline in adjusted EBITDA, HelloFresh said the company’s management had “re-evaluated” the “mid-term business plan”.
That envisages reaching €10bn ($10.9bn) in revenue in the 2025 financial year and an adjusted EBITDA level of €1bn as HelloFresh adjusts to a “very different operating environment”. The company added the targets are “unlikely” to be met.
Ahead of the final 2023 results due on 15 March, preliminary revenue was reported as €7.597bn, compared to €7.607bn the previous year. That would represent growth of around 2.8% in constant-currency terms, within the guided range of 2% to 5%.
Adjusted EBITDA is also expected to be in line with guidance in value terms at €448m, compared to the €430-€470m outlook. However, it would be a decrease on the 2022 print of €477m.
Berlin-headquartered HelloFresh, which was set up in 2011 and went public in 2017 with a listing in Frankfurt, also said adjusted EBITDA in the current 2024 year will likely be below last year’s levels.
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The company pointed to €350-€400m, which the business admitted is below the market consensus rate of €568m as of 7 March.
HelloFresh said it had felt the effect of investment in production and fulfillment, as well as in marketing. It also pointed to the impact of lower volumes on fixed costs.
Outside of those markets, HelloFresh also serves other European countries, the US and Canada, Australia and New Zealand, and Japan.
The 2024 revenue growth outlook was more positive, given as 2-8% in constant-currency terms, which compares to the market consensus put forward by HelloFresh of 7.1% as of 7 March.
“Within its ready-to-eat product vertical, which is currently delivering a c. 50% year-on-year growth rate, the company expects to continue capitalising on strong demand, as it continues to ramp-up production capacity.”
It added: “For meal kits, which currently experience in percentage terms a negative ad hoc disclosure revenue growth in the high single digits, the company expects to increasingly close the negative volume and revenue gap compared to the corresponding period in 2023, as it progresses through the year.”
HelloFresh’s shares were down by about 21% at €7.11 as of 16:08 GMT time today (11 March). They were as high as circa €94 in 2021, compared to the indicative IPO price range in 2017 of €9 to €11.50 a share.
