Nate Cohn: “The poll found Donald Trump leading Nikki Haley in the Republican primary, 77% to 20%. That’s pretty good for Mr. Trump, of course, but it’s actually Ms. Haley’s best result in a month. And according to our poll, there’s a simple reason for her strength: Biden voters, who now make up 15% of those who say they will probably vote in the Republican primary. In fact, a near majority of Ms. Haley’s supporters (48% to 31%) say they voted for Mr. Biden in the last election instead of Mr. Trump.”
Ed Kilgore: “This finding suggests that many Haley voters are not flippable swing voters Trump would sacrifice, but may instead be 2020 Biden voters who weren’t really on the table for Trump at all, from the get-go. If that is the case, then we shouldn’t view the votes Haley receives in states where non-Republicans can participate as omens of doom for Trump in November.”
