An even election turns into a five-point win for Joe Biden if Donald Trump is convicted of a crime before Election Day.
What Happens If Trump Is Convicted Of A Crime?
The NPR/Marist poll found that Trump will lose to Joe Biden if he is convicted of a crime.
Biden (48%) and Trump (47%) are competitive among registered voters nationally. Independents break for Trump: 50% to 42% for Biden. Among those with an unfavorable view of Biden and Trump, Biden (43%) holds a 4-percentage point edge against Trump (39%). 18% of these voters are undecided.
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If Trump were convicted on criminal charges, Biden (51%) opens a six-percentage point lead over Trump (45%) among registered voters. The gap closes among independents, with 47% supporting Trump and 45% backing Biden. Nearly one in ten Republicans (9%) would support Biden.
Trump’s Criminal Charges Matter To General Election Voters
The point of the NPR/Marist poll is that the media, pollsters, and pundit class might be framing the election the wrong way. The 2024 election isn’t about two equal candidates and issues.
The 2024 election is likely to be about Donald Trump and the criminal charges that he is facing.
If Trump is convicted of a felony, it is over for the former president. There are substantial numbers of non-Republican voters who will not support a convicted felon for president.
Trump can lie and discredit the cases against him every day through election day, but if he is convicted, he is going to lose.
Republicans have been kidding themselves if they think that a felony conviction won’t matter or that the election can be treated like business as usual.
Donald Trump is one felony conviction away from Joe Biden winning a second term.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
