Turkey’s new central bank governor seen as a ‘credible choice’

Turkey’s newly appointed central bank governor Fatih Karahan has his work cut out for him, named to the job by presidential decree over the weekend after the sudden resignation of his predecessor, Hafize Gaye Erkan.

Previously the central bank’s deputy governor, Karahan’s resume features years spent in prominent American institutions and companies. He received both a masters degree and doctorate in economics at the University of Pennsylvania, spent nearly a decade as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, worked as a part-time lecturer at Columbia University and New York University, and served as a senior economist for Amazon.

It is hoped that the 42-year-old economist’s experience will serve him well as he heads the institution working to tackle the eye-watering inflation and cost-of-living crisis that has hit Turkey’s population of 85 million. The country’s currency, the lira, is down 38% against the dollar year-to-date and has lost more than 80% of its value against the greenback over the last five years. 

Turkey’s consumer price index print came out Monday showing a roughly 65% increase year-on-year for the month of January. Its central bank has made eight consecutive interest rate hikes since May 2023 — for a cumulative 3,650 basis points — in an effort to rein in soaring inflation. The latest rate hike, on Jan. 25, raised Turkey’s key interest rate by 250 basis points to 45%, though its leaders signaled at the time that the hiking cycle was at its end.

While painful for the country, investors and economists say the rate hikes have been necessary and that continuity in monetary policy priorities will engender confidence in the new central bank chief.

In his statement posted to the Turkish Central Bank’s website on Sunday, Karahan stressed “price stability” as his team’s main priority, vowing to “ensure disinflation” and “maintain the necessary monetary tightness until inflation falls to levels consistent with our target.”

“All eyes now focus on new central bank governor Fatih Karahan,” Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at London-based Capital Economics, wrote in a note Monday. “As things stand, continuity in monetary policy looks set to continue.”

Wolfango Piccoli, co-president at advisory firm Teneo, agreed.

“Like Erkan, Karahan is not a monetary economist, but is nevertheless regarded as a credible choice,” Piccoli wrote in an analysis for the firm.

“Unlike recent gubernatorial changes, Erkan’s departure will not result in a dramatic shift in policy stance,” he said, adding that the central bank could still “adopt a more hawkish tone in terms of forward guidance to support Karahan in his new role.”

Piccoli noted that Turkey’s monetary policy still ultimately remains at the mercy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who spooked investors for years by stifling the central bank’s independence and preventing it from raising interest rates despite runaway inflation that at one point topped 85%.

The more conventional policy approach that began under Hafize Erkan and Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, also appointed last year, followed several years of unorthodox policy. Erdogan has previously decried interest rates as “the mother of all evil” even as consumer prices soared and the lira plunged.

“Regardless of Karahan’s stature and the backing provided by Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, Erdogan remains the ultimate decision-maker,” Piccoli said.

“As long as the president stays supportive of the (gradual) turn to orthodoxy that he endorsed after the 2023 elections, the identity of the governor is almost irrelevant as the TCMB has weak (if any) institutional independence.”

Karahan “will still have to operate within the boundaries of a central bank that is neither independent nor staffed by adequate professionals,” Piccoli added. CNBC has reached out to the Turkish central bank for comment.

Investor confidence in Turkey improved over the roughly eight-month tenure of Hafize Erkan, who became Turkey’s first-ever female central bank governor in June of 2023. She tendered her resignation on Friday in a surprise announcement, saying that the decision was due to a “reputation assassination” campaign and the need to protect her family.

Erkan, like Karahan, also has a resume featuring elite American institutions; she has a PhD in financial engineering from Princeton and degrees from both Harvard and Stanford’s business schools, and later worked at Goldman Sachs and First Republic Bank, the latter for which she served as co-CEO. She also served on the board of directors for Tiffany & Co., and was appointed director of Marsh McLennan, a professional services company and Fortune 500 firm.