As Ukraine fights against a fierce Russian offensive and its leaders wait to see whether the West will approve more than $100 million in much-needed assistance, the government in Kyiv is dealing with a festering distraction: tumult in its top ranks centered on the fate of the top military commander.
Speculation raged on Monday in political and military circles, the news media and online that President Volodymyr Zelensky had fired the commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhny, with rumors becoming so widespread that the president’s office was forced to issue a public denial.
“There was no dismissal,” the president’s spokesman, Serhiy Nikiforov, told the Ukrainian media.
“I cannot say anything else,” he said. When asked whether the president intended to dismiss the general, Mr. Nikiforov replied: “I repeat to you once again — there is no subject of conversation.”
The curt response only fueled further speculation that the president’s office had planned to fire General Zaluzhny but backed down after a furious backlash, and on Tuesday the capital was still consumed with whether the general would be staying or going.
The general’s job has been in doubt since it became clear in the autumn that Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the country’s south had failed.
Ukraine’s former president and a leading opposition figure, Petro O. Poroshenko, was one of many prominent politicians who quickly weighed in on the rumors.
Defending General Zaluzhny, he said the military commander had become the personification of the unity needed throughout the country over the course of two years of brutal fighting to save the nation from Russian subjugation.
A decision to remove him would not be motivated “by military and strategic considerations,” he said while on a trip to Brussels, adding: “It is based on emotions and jealousy.”
Around the same time as he issued his statement on social media, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense issued a statement saying the speculation was unfounded.
Along the front line, where Ukrainians are fighting intense, bloody engagements daily, uncertainty over the general’s fate would be a blow to morale, some soldiers reached by phone said. “Zaluzhny enjoys very high authority in the army,” said Lt. Pavlo Velychko, who is serving in Ukraine’s 101st Territorial Defense Brigade. Firing the general, he said, would be “a signal to commanders of all ranks: No matter how well you do your job, you can be removed without reason.”
The tumult in the leadership ranks comes at a particularly precarious moment for Ukraine in the war. Russia has intensified attacks on the battlefield at the same time as it has stepped up its propaganda campaign aimed at undermining support for Ukraine in the West. Ukraine, in the meantime, is forced to wait to see how political interests in the United States and Europe affect its prospects for getting aid it desperately needs.
Conflict between Ukraine’s military and civilian leadership has been part of the background discussion in Kyiv for months, as has speculation about a change in military leadership.
Neither man nor their staffs have done much to dispel reports of tension. While Mr. Zelensky and General Zaluzhny have appeared together at photo opportunities and staged events, the two most powerful leaders in the country have never jointly addressed the nation in a significant fashion.
The icy relations and a lack of any explanation of the general’s standing have become problems in themselves, said Volodymyr Ariev, a member of Parliament from the opposition European Solidarity party. It was uncharacteristic for Mr. Zelensky, a former actor often praised for his communications skills, he said, adding: “The absence of communication is equal to confirmation of a problem.”
Friction between the president and his top general has simmered, mostly behind the scenes, since soon after the Russian invasion and as General Zaluzhny’s popularity soared with military victories. Among Ukrainian political analysts, the general is seen as a plausible challenger to Mr. Zelensky if elections now suspended by martial law were to resume.
The schism deepened last fall, when General Zaluzhny published an essay declaring the fighting a deadlock, contradicting Mr. Zelensky’s hopeful assertions of progress. That breach followed a Ukrainian counteroffensive staged with billions of dollars in Western weapons that failed to achieve a breakthrough while costing thousands of Ukrainian casualties.
More recently, the two publicly disagreed over whether the civilian or military leadership should be responsible for a plan to draft as many as half a million men to replenish the army. The draft is likely to be unpopular and taint whichever leaders are most closely associated with it, Ukrainian commentators have noted.
The rumors this week were of a slightly different nature — with the reaction swifter and more widespread than in the past.
“Russia appears to be fueling and seizing on neo-imperialist and nationalist sentiments in Europe in order to drive wedges between Ukraine and its Western neighbors,” the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank, noted in its latest report. Far right parties are increasingly amplifying Russian President Vladimir Putin’s narrative about Ukraine having historical “territorial disputes” with Poland, Romania and Hungary.
While the Kremlin would surely look to seize on any upheaval in the Ukrainian command to further undermine support for Ukraine, Moscow has itself turned to a rotating cast of military figures to lead its war effort.
President Vladimir V. Putin named Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov one year ago, dismissing Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was in the job for only three months. General Surovikin had replaced Gen. Aleksandr Dvornikov.
General Gerasimov has not been seen in public this year, fueling rumors that he was injured or killed in a Ukrainian strike while he visited the occupied Crimean peninsula.
Ukrainian military intelligence has said it does not know whether Russia’s wartime leader is alive.
“This is information that requires careful additional verification,” Andriy Yusov, the spokesman for Ukraine’s military intelligence ministry. “This would be very good news for all of us, but we are currently verifying it.”
Friction between civilian and military leadership has been a staple of many wars. President Abraham Lincoln fired the his commander of the Army of the Potomac, Gen. George B. McClellan, in the civil war, and during the Korean War, President Truman dismissed Gen. Douglas MacArthur. But the way in which military changes are handled is often critical to how they are perceived.
If any move to replace the general is viewed as purely political rather than a militarily necessity, Mr. Zelensky could face a backlash not just among opposition politicians but the public, who polls show hold General Zaluzhny in the highest of regard.
Maria Varenikova contributed reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine.
