Most games, you can spot Martin Odegaard geeing up his Arsenal team. The Gunners captain shakes one hand in the air, asking for more noise from the stands, demanding more pressure on the opposition goal from his team-mates.
It feels the like role of an orchestra conductor, only it’s a footballer in the middle of a Premier League pitch. And that metaphor is in line with Odegaard’s role in this team.
Odegaard is at the heart of most Arsenal attacks – he has the most passes that have led to shots in the Premier League this season, while only Bruno Fernandes and Mohamed Salah have been involved in more attacking sequences to result in shots.
The vast majority of those Odegaard passes are ‘secondary shot assists’ – the pass before the pass that leads to the shot. And they have been crucial for Arsenal this term.
Arsenal’s winning goals away at Everton and Brentford came from the Norwegian’s ‘second assists’. These passes also gave Arsenal the lead early on against Tottenham and Bournemouth. Odegaard’s key ball to open up the play against Brighton gave his side their result-sealing second goal through Kai Havertz to pick up an important win.
But now Arsenal are stumbling. Back-to-back defeats to West Ham and Fulham have derailed the Gunners’ title bid. There’s an argument they should have also picked up three points in the draw at Liverpool before Christmas, given the chances they had at Anfield.
Yet amid Arsenal’s recent stumble, Odegaard’s levels have not dipped. He put on 19 passes leading to shots in those three games the Gunners failed to win. Arsenal failed to score from all of those opportunities.
The most brutal game for him was the 2-0 loss to West Ham, where Arsenal had 30 shots on goal. Odegaard, either directly or indirectly, set up 12 of them. Arsenal’s attacking options were misfiring while their captain was putting everything on a plate.
The warning signs were there, when it comes to Arsenal’s attack not benefiting from Odegaard’s creativity. Go further back and the Gunners have scored just twice from 41 chances influenced by their captain.
There was the delicious outside-of-the-boot pass from Odegaard against Brighton to release Bukayo Saka down the right of the box. Saka squared for Gabriel Martinelli who tapped over with the goal gaping. Arsenal won the game, so got away with it.
Against Brighton, Odegaard played a glorious pass to Saka, who squared to Martnelli in the box, but he fired over a big chance.
Against Wolves, Leandro Trossard and Eddie Nketiah both missed one-on-ones from precise Odegaard through balls. Arsenal held on for a 2-1 win, so those chances were forgotten about.
Against Wolves in December, Odegaard played Trossard through but his one-on-one was saved
Minutes later, Odegaard played in Nketiah for a one-on-one, but he hit the post
Those moments, and there are many more, didn’t cost Arsenal points but now they are. Gabriel Jesus and Saka both missed close-range chances from Odegaard passes against West Ham. Martinelli then put a good effort wide after being teed up by his captain inside the box at Fulham three days later.
Against West Ham, Odegaard took four defenders out the game to feed Ben White, but Jesus couldn’t tap home the defender’s cross
Then at Fulham, Odegaard teed up Martinelli for a great chance but he put it wide
So every Arsenal forward has missed a big Odegaard chance in recent weeks, leaving Odegaard with just three assists this season, despite having an Expected Assists of 4.37.
It is why Jamie Carragher questioned the conversion rate of Mikel Arteta’s front three on Monday Night Football, as the debate about whether the Gunners need a new striker rumbles on.
“The gold standard of shot conversion is 20-plus. That’s what your Mo Salah, your Erling Haaland, your Harry Kane is getting,” he said.
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Jamie Carragher believes Arsenal’s attack isn’t currently world-class and it won’t win them the Premier League title.
“None of Arsenal’s front four have got above that number even last season. And yet they are still creating the same number of shots a game and they’ve still got the same xG.
“So these players [the front three] are underperforming from last season, when even then still wasn’t good enough in terms of winning a title.
“City have won titles in the past because they had [Sergio] Aguero and they’ve now got Haaland. Is that enough for Arsenal to win a league title? Are any of them world-class right now to take Arsenal to a title? I’d say no.”
Arsenal’s wastefulness from Odegaard’s brilliance has cost them six points in their last two Premier League games. But failure to fix this issue could lead to worse outcomes.
The Gunners’ FA Cup and Champions League credentials will be tested in January and February, before the Premier League title race reaches crunch time in the months after that.
An orchestra conductor is no good if the performers are out of tune. If Arsenal are to be serious contenders across multiple competitions, they need to get their forward line on the same hymn sheet as their captain.
