Oilers Quarter Report: Path to playoffs still exists despite poor start

EDMONTON — It was only a brief few days. And in truth, the Edmonton Oilers weren’t dead last, in 32nd place in the National Hockey League just a dozen games into this season.

They were tied for 32nd, with the San Joe Sharks. 

Unfortunately, that qualifier wasn’t enough to save head coach Jay Woodcroft’s job. He was fired with a 2-9-1 record after losing to the hapless Sharks, a team that inhabits the league’s basement today.

If there is a flashpoint to the Oilers’ opening quarter of the 2023-24 season that is certainly it, a move many fans believe was unnecessary and panic-driven. Now, it’s a move the Oilers can only justify if, at season’s end, they can say that 2-9-1 turned into something much, much better.

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Where are they relative to expectations? 

After 20 games, the 7-12-1 Oilers sit in 29th place in the NHL’s overall standings. They are 13th in the Western Conference, seventh in the Pacific, and sit six points behind the second wild-card spot (Seattle) with two games in hand. 

For a team that many picked to win the Stanley Cup — and even more predicted would finish atop the Pacific Division — the Oilers’ performance “relative to expectation” is poor indeed. 

With the Vegas Golden Knights in Edmonton for the first meeting between the two teams on Tuesday, the Oilers trail the defending champs by 15 points. It is fair to say that any hopes of winning the Pacific are gone with Woodcroft. In fact, sitting 14 points back of third-place Vancouver, it’s likely fair to say that the Oilers’ only route into the post-season will be as a wild card team.

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Top-six forwards grade: D

The highest-scoring team in the NHL last season only climbed into the top half of the league in goals per game (3.30) by scoring 13 times in games No. 19 and 20, a pair of lopsided wins (5-0 and 8-2) to close out their opening quarter.

Connor McDavid nursed an injury through likely the worst slump of his career during Q1. Leon Draisaitl struggled in the first 18 games and so did Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. As such, a powerplay that set an NHL record a season ago failed the Oilers, unable to rescue more than a handful of games where at least a loser point would have been attainable with a productive man advantage. 

The best top-six forwards for Edmonton, it should be said, were Zach Hyman (12-10-22) and Evander Kane (10-9-19). But the fact that the Oilers’ top-five forwards have combined for a minus-15 tells the take on their overall game.

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Bottom-six forwards grade: D

Management shares in this one, as GM Ken Holland has assembled a bottom-six that lacks in identity, grit and size. 

Key depth forward Mattias Janmark was hurt for much of this span, but the biggest failure has been on the third line, where centre Ryan McLeod (0-4-4) has been mired in a slump that has caved this line in. McLeod is expected to be the most productive bottom-sixer, and he did not score a goal. 

But predictably, as the top-six guys have picked up their game in the past week or so, so to have the depth guys looked better. Derek Ryan and call-up centre James Hamblin have been the best of this bunch, and may one day form a nice fourth line with Janmark on the left side. 

Defence grade: D

This group has really shored up its game of late, but like everyone else, it was a tardy, tardy start.

The biggest surprise was Mattias Ekholm’s average opening quarter. The big Swede missed training camp and took a hip injury into the season, and only now is he beginning to defend as expected.

Evan Bouchard (5-15-20) sits fifth among NHL defencemen in scoring, but the minus-five next to his name tells you how his defensive game has been. Ten of his points are on the powerplay, and he’s got much work to do when it comes to awareness and defending in his own zone.

Cody Ceci has likely been the steadiest of this D-corps, which has come around in the past week or so. Support from their forwards and goaltending have also been major issues, but for a team that wanted to improve its goals against this season, being 30th at 3.70 per game does not make for a passing grade.

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Goaltending grade: F

Jack Campbell owns much of this grade, and he’ll own it down in Bakersfield where he’s trying to find enough game to get called up as a backup to Stuart Skinner. But a team with the second-worst saves percentage in the game (.871) has failed in giving itself enough saves on a nightly basis to succeed.

However, credit is due to Skinner, who has battled through the familiar sophomore slump and shouldered the load dropped on him when Campbell flamed out. Skinner had a shutout in game No. 19 and held the Ducks to two goals in game No. 20.

Without Skinner hanging in there and battling to re-find his game, the Oilers would be toast. 

A big question for the second quarter

Functional team defence.

This team will get to four goals per night often, and three goals likely 75 per cent of the time. So it does not have to defend like Jacques Lemaire’s New Jersey Devils — it just requires the requisite amount of awareness, physicality and buy-in in its own zone to win games.

Of course, that requires saves. 

You could say that the acquisition of a goalie to help Skinner is the most important job for Holland. But if that trade isn’t available until the deadline, then it’s up to the skaters here to lessen the load on a goaltending tandem that simply isn’t going to steal a bunch of games.

It’s fun to win 8-2, but as we’ve always said, until the Edmonton Oilers can consistently win 3-2, there won’t be any parades down Jasper Ave.

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