A government shutdown feels almost certain at this point. That might not be bad news for the stock market after all. Data compiled by Raymond James shows the S & P 500 has averaged a 3.2% gain during government shutdowns going back to 1995. The most recent one, which took place between late 2018 and early 2019 and lasted 22 trading days, saw the S & P 500 rally more than 10%. In fact, the broad market index has posted gains in every shutdown period tracked by Raymond James. But why do stocks tend to look past these events? Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, noted, “The reason why the market doesn’t focus too much on it is because they assume that even if the government shuts down, it will quickly reopen, and the overall economic impact therefore will be very muted.” Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau also said, “the economic hit is usually modest,” adding that shutdowns “do not impact market functioning.” There are some factors that could make it harder for the market to weather a shutdown this time, including the potential delay of key economic data, which could hinder the Federal Reserve’s ability to set monetary policy going forward. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
