If the Toronto Blue Jays secure a wild-card spot over the weekend, fans can be assured they’ll see plenty of statistical comparisons between the teams and players involved in their upcoming three-game series.
That makes sense as baseball is a game well-suited to statistical analysis — and when a team’s entire season is on the line, drilling down on what might decide its fate is a worthwhile endeavour.
When the playoff preview numbers are being crunched, the most common way that’s done is by looking at season-long statistics. In most cases that’s the best way to go about it. It’s easy to get sucked in by recency bias and numbers are more reliable when they’re powered by larger sample sizes.
Even if that’s usually true, sometimes taking the 30,000-foot view can be deceptive. Below are some Blue Jays who are likely to significantly outperform or fall short of their full-season numbers as the final chapter of Toronto’s 2023 campaign is written.
Likely to overperform: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2023 numbers: .263/.342/.441 in 672 PA for a 117 wRC+
All year long there has been talk that Guerrero is performing better than his numbers suggest, but we’ve reached the end of the season and he never came around quite as much as expected.
Even so, there’s still a solid gap between his xwOBA and wOBA — and he’s turned things on lately. He isn’t coming off a particularly strong series against the New York Yankees, but his wRC+ in September is a robust 126 and he’s walked more than he’s struck out this month. If not for an uncharacteristically low .221 BABIP, his numbers might be exceptional.
He has dealt with some knee soreness, but there’s no evidence that it’s slowing him down, and if you can smash the over on Guerrero besting a 117 wRC+ over any given stretch of time that’s probably the right call on his talent alone. In this case, he also has a little momentum on his side.
Likely to underperform: Bo Bichette
2023 numbers: .303/.334/.468 in 586 PA for a 122 wRC+
Bichette was the Blue Jays’ most consistent hitter for most of the season, but since returning from the IL due to a knee injury he hasn’t been the same guy he was earlier in the year.
The shortstop has hit just .230/.275/.338 in his 18 games back with the team, putting together his worst stretch of the year.
There have been signs of life with Bichette lately as he has three multi-hit games in his last five, but he’s still produced just four extra-base hits after his IL stint.
He may well get his bat back in gear in the days to come, but the combination of the slump and injury paints the picture of a player who probably can’t be expected to produce at an elite rate in the days to come.
Likely to overperform: Daulton Varsho
2023 numbers: .220/.287/.388 in 567 PA for a 86 wRC+
Varsho’s first season as a Blue Jay will go down as a disappointment from an offensive standpoint, but he has come around lately.
In his first 400 plate appearances of the season, Varsho produced a miserable 76 wRC+, but since the beginning of August, that number is up to 110 with significant upticks in his walk rate, strikeout rate, and ISO.
Like Guerrero, Varsho’s yearlong numbers are simply on the low end compared to his true talent. After two consecutive seasons of at least average production at the dish, he’s had a rough 2023.
He’s no offensive star, but his 86 wRC+ undersells his abilities.
Likely to underperform: Jordan Romano
2023 numbers: 11.17 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9 in 58 IP with a 2.95 ERA and 3.26 xERA
The fact Romano is coming off two straight rough outings isn’t a reason for alarm in and of itself — and the closer is seemingly over the fingernail issue that he struggled with last weekend in Tampa Bay.
All of that said, the Canadian right-hander hasn’t been at his best for some time now.
Since returning from an IL stint on Aug. 15, he’s struggled with his location. More recently that’s been a few meatballs over the plate, but for much of that time it’s been a tendency to give away free passes.
Romano’s wobbly command in recent weeks makes him less of a sure thing in high-leverage spots than he’s been for much of the season.
Likely to overperform: Cavan Biggio
2023 numbers: .230/.331/.371 in 323 PA for a 100 wRC+
Biggio’s offensive statistics are average — and closely match his 2022 numbers — but there’s a reason manager John Schneider has consistently penciled him into the middle of the order lately.
The 28-year-old’s April was so disastrous (9 wRC+) that it continues to drag him down statistically even in September. Since May 1 the utility man has a 114 wRC+ fueled by an excellent .358 OBP.
Not only has Biggio been performing at a high level for months, but he’s also made a mechanical change, flattening his swing in a way that’s helped him minimize harmless flyballs and handle pitches at the top of the zone better than he has in the past.
Likely to underperform: Whit Merrifield
2023 numbers: .276/.322/.388 in 323 PA for a 97 wRC+
Merrifield has been an approximately average offensive performer in 2023, but he certainly hasn’t fit that profile lately. The veteran has produced a 51 wRC+ since August 1 with just 10 extra-base hits in 45 games.
He hasn’t just been cold in recent weeks, either. Even when he was rolling his production had a smoke-and-mirrors quality.
The 34-year-old has posted a career-low .275 xwOBA, but managed to overshoot his expected numbers. He also enjoyed an inexplicable power surge between July 6 and Aug. 4 that saw him slug .606 with eight home runs. That kind of pop is unlikely to reappear any time soon.
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