The U.S. dollar crossed another key milestone after the Federal Reserve reiterated its commitment to higher rates, and that could create pressure elsewhere in the global economy. The dollar index hit its highest level since March 9 on Thursday, pushing its 50-day moving average above its 200-day counterpart. That milestone for the moving averages is known as a “golden cross,” which typically leads to the dollar climbing further in the coming months, according to Bank of America. “This supports our 4Q23 technical view of a supported and potentially stronger USD. This signal preempted a higher DXY (vs the close on the day of the signal) 20-80 trading days later,” Paul Ciana, technical strategist at Bank of America, said in a note to clients Wednesday. The latest leg higher for the dollar appears to be related to the Federal Reserve. The central bank signaled on Wednesday that it expects one more rate hike this year, and reduced its forecast for rate cuts in 2024 . Yields for 2-year and 10-year Treasurys have jumped since the Fed’s announcement, a signal that traders believe a “higher for longer” rate environment is coming. Higher interest rates in the U.S. increase demand for the dollar. A stronger dollar could be bad news for the global economy, where some countries have been struggling relative to the U.S. already. Many commodities and debt instruments are denominated in dollars, meaning they become more expensive in local currency terms when the dollar strengthens. To be sure, technical indicators like a golden cross do not have perfect predictive track records. “The risk to the signal is the DXY is already up > 5% in two months and near the YTD highs of 105.88. A signal when price is near the highs may make it difficult to perform vs a signal that occurs just after a timely dip,” Ciana said. — CNBC’s Gina Francolla contributed reporting.
