UFC 293 takes place at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia this weekend with Israel Adesanya looking to defend his middleweight title against Sean Strickland.
While the card lacks any matchups with title implications beyond the main event, it does feature plenty of local talent from Australia and New Zealand, so the crowd should be a lively one.
Popular heavyweight Tai Tuivasa takes on Alexander Volkov in the co-main event, while fellow knockout artist Justin Tafa gets his rematch with Austen Lane less than three months after their no-contest when an eye-poke from Lane only 29 seconds into the opening round rendered Tafa unable to continue.
Rising light-heavyweight prospect Carlos Ulberg faces Jung Da-un in the featured preliminary bout. Canadian lightweight John Makdessi meets Australian Jamie Mullarkey also on the prelims.
The event takes place early Sunday locally but will air live at its usual time Saturday night in North America with the pay-per-view main card scheduled to begin at 10 p.m. ET.
Below is a closer look at the main event, the full fight lineup plus the corresponding betting odds.
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ISRAEL ADESANYA VS. SEAN STRICKLAND
Adesanya to win -600 | Strickland to win +395 | Draw +5500
Adesanya by decision +160 | Strickland by decision +1200
Adesanya by KO/TKO/DQ -125 | Strickland by KO/TKO/DQ +800
Adesanya by submission +1500 | Strickland by submission +2100
Over 4.5 rounds +115 | Under 4.5 rounds -135
Adesanya is coming off his incredible knockout victory to win back his title against Alex Pereira at UFC 287 in April after previously losing it at UFC 281 last November. Prior to his two-fight series with his Brazilian rival, Adesanya had gone the distance in four consecutive championship bouts. One was a unanimous decision loss to then-205-pound champ Jan Blachowicz when Adesanya attempted to become a simultaneous two-weight champ in 2021. The other three were all successful unanimous decision title defences at his natural 185 pounds against Marvin Vettori (UFC 263), Robert Whittaker (UFC 271) and Jared Cannonier (UFC 276).
Strickland is 8-2 in the UFC when competing at middleweight and coming off back-to-back Fight Night main event victories. He won a unanimous decision over Nassourdine Imavov in January and derailed the Abus Magomedov hype train with a second-round technical knockout in July.
Although it’s his first title shot Strickland is no stranger to five-rounders and has gone 3-1 in 25-minute bouts over the past two years just like Adesanya. Both fighters have a proven ability to push the pace in fourth and fifth rounds. The only question is will this one get to the championship rounds?
Strickland has shown throughout his career, and especially in his UFC 276 loss to Alex Pereira, that he’s willing to sacrifice a smart game plan and go out on his shield because he prefers to test his striking. If Strickland does that against Izzy, opposed to taking a more strategic approach involving grappling pressure, does that mean we’re more likely to see a finish one way or another?
Adesanya teased this week that he’d love to earn his first submission victory and thinks he could do it versus Strickland who theoretically should hold a slight grappling advantage. If either fighter pulled off a submission it would result in some potentially huge albeit unlikely payouts based on the odds above.
Overall, oddsmakers aren’t giving Strickland much of a chance. After all, he’s not the true top contender at middleweight. He leapfrogged No. 1-ranked contender Dricus du Plessis to get this title shot because du Plessis had not fully recovered from his July TKO win over former champ Robert Whittaker and the UFC was insistent on booking Adesanya for this Australian event, so Strickland is taking advantage of an opportunity.
Adesanya has only been a favourite of -500 or shorter on two other occasions in his UFC career – against Cannonier and in a three-round bout versus Anderson Silva in 2019. Adesanya won easily on the scorecards in both of those bouts.
If Adesanya is poised to defend his title for a sixth time then the trick for bettors will be to find value by calling your shot and picking the method by which the champ will win.
Implied outcome: Adesanya by KO/TKO/DQ -125
Best value bet: Adesanya by decision +160
MAIN CARD
— Israel Adesanya (-600) vs. Sean Strickland (+395)
— Tai Tuivasa (+170) vs. Alexander Volkov (-235)
— Manel Kape (-405) vs. Felipe dos Santos (+315)
— Justin Tafa (-240) vs. Austen Lane (+165)
— Tyson Pedro (-110) vs. Anton Turkalj (-120)
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Carlos Ulberg (-345) vs. Jung Da-un (+245)
— Jack Jenkins (-220) vs. Chepe Mariscal (+165)
— Jamie Mullarkey (-310) vs. John Makdessi (+225)
— Nasrat Haqparast (-525) vs. Landon Quiñones (+355)
— Mike “Blood Diamond” Mathetha (+235) vs. Charlie Radtke (-330)
— Shane Young (-165) vs. Gabriel Miranda (+125)
— Kevin Jousset (-175) vs. Kiefer Crosbie (+135)
(Odds above via Sports Interaction as of Friday and subject to change)
