Nate Silver: “I have a confession: I haven’t yet watched last night’s Republican debate. But I think I can make this prediction regardless. In fact, maybe it doesn’t matter that I haven’t watched, because I’m not sure my subjective impressions would help all that much — it’s not as though what I’m looking for in a presidential candidate maps very well to the median Iowa caucusgoer.”
“The prediction, stated with say 85% confidence, is that Vivek Ramaswamy will rise in the polls over the next month or so.”
“This prediction comes from some fairly basic mechanics that you’ll often see in multi-candidate primaries, predictable enough mechanics that they almost seem like gravitational forces.”
