UFC 292 marks a quick turnaround for men’s bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling. The men’s 135-pound titleholder is set to defend his belt against Sean O’Malley just three months after defeating former two-weight champion Henry Cejudo.
Sterling is seemingly coming into UFC 292 with a chip on his shoulder, saying this week he feels O’Malley has benefitted from “Dana White privilege” and favouritism from the UFC’s marketing department on his road to a title shot.
The No. 1-ranked contender at bantamweight is Sterling’s teammate Merab Dvalishvili but since the teammates are not willing to fight each other O’Malley was able to jump the line after picking up a split decision win over former champ Petr Yan 10 months ago. O’Malley’s win over Yan is his lone victory over a fighter currently ranked in the top 15 at bantamweight.
“Who has this guy fought? He is gonna get exposed on Saturday night,” Sterling said of O’Malley during Thursday’s pre-fight press conference.
Sterling has said in interviews leading up to UFC 292 that it’s likely the final time he will compete at 135 pounds before moving up in weight and testing the waters at featherweight.
The 34-year-old champion has won nine in a row dating back to 2018 and holds the UFC record for both bantamweight wins and bantamweight title defences on the men’s side.
If Sterling does add another to the win column and decides to move on from the division it could set up his pal Dvalishvili for a vacant title bout later this year. O’Malley of course hopes to upset those plans by upsetting Sterling who’s a two-to-one favourite according to the oddsmakers.
UFC 292 also features a championship co-main event between 115-pound titleholder Zhang Weili and challenger Amanda Lemos among other interesting matchups.
With that in mind let’s take a closer look at the key matchups on the UFC’s penultimate pay-per-view event of the summer.
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ALJAMAIN STERLING VS. SEAN O’MALLEY
Sterling to win -225 | O’Malley to win +270 | Draw +5500
Sterling by decision +250 | O’Malley by decision +580
Sterling by KO/TKO/DQ +490 | O’Malley by KO/TKO/DQ +240
Sterling by submission +185 | O’Malley by submission +2400
Over 4.5 +160 | Under 4.5 -210
O’Malley has only closed as the underdog once previously back when he was roughly a +300 dog (depending on the sportsbook) ahead of his fight with Yan at UFC 281. He rewarded his backers in that one and hopes to do it again. Sterling has often been underestimated during his UFC career and hasn’t closed as this wide a favourite in more than six years.
Distance will be key in this one. O’Malley is the more dangerous striker and boasts a reach advantage while Sterling’s advantage on the mat should be the biggest dichotomy in this stylistic matchup, so if Sterling can wade through the danger early in rounds to close the distance and get his hands on the challenger we could get a showcase of that.
Sterling’s takedown accuracy is a low 24 per cent but the champ is so persistent it often forces his opponents to worry about defence first and they stay stuck on the back foot. Sterling’s top game and back control are so dominant he can eat up rounds if he does gain a dominant position.
O’Malley has never seen a fourth or fifth round in his MMA career but keep in mind he did win the third and final round against Yan when they fought. Meanwhile, Sterling has gone into the championship rounds in three of his past four appearances. In fact, the champion has gone the distance in nine of his past 14 fights overall.
Implied outcome: Sterling by submission +185
Best value bet: Sterling by KO/TKO/DQ +490
ZHANG WEILI VS. AMANDA LEMOS
Zhang to win -360 | Lemos to win +280 | Draw +5200
Zhang by decision +285 | Lemos by decision +900
Zhang by KO/TKO/DQ +145 | Lemos by KO/TKO/DQ +410
Zhang by submission +380 | Lemos by submission +1000
Over 3.5 +165 | Under 3.5 -220
Zhang is looking for the first defence of her second title reign after winning the belt from Carla Esparza in November with a rear-naked choke submission. Lemos has knockout ability like we saw in her most recent outing against Marina Rodriguez in November and we’ve seen Zhang get put away once in the past by Rose Namajunas.
Lemos has a dearth of marquee wins, though, and fell short in her toughest test when she was submitted by former champion Jessica Andrade just 16 months ago.
Four of Zhang’s six title bouts have ended before the midway point of the second round and Lemos has only gone the distance thrice in her nine-year MMA career (none were five-rounders) so the 3.5 total rounds prop is an interesting market to pay attention to.
Implied outcome: Zhang by KO/TKO/DQ +145
Best value bet: Zhang by submission +380
Parlaying the two champions at the listed moneyline prices above would get you reasonable -118 odds.
The two title bouts aren’t the only intriguing matchups fans can look forward to at UFC 292.
Rising welterweight talent Ian Machado Garry has been talking with his chest puffed out all fight week as he prepares to face veteran and perennial 170-pound gatekeeper Neil Magny on the main card. Garry is looking to improve to 13-0 in MMA and break into the top 10 with an impressive win. Magny is a late replacement for Geoff Neal who withdrew one week ago due to undisclosed health issues. Garry is the biggest betting favourite on the card.
Da’Mon Blackshear can potentially set a new UFC record by becoming the first fighter to earn two victories within seven days of each other. Blackshear submitted Jose Johnson via twister one week ago at a UFC Fight Night event in Las Vegas and is stepping in to replace former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt versus Mario Bautista.
The main card opens with a notable bout at 135 pounds. No. 6-ranked contender Marlon Vera takes on No. 10 Pedro Munhoz and the winner of this one could find themselves close to a title shot, especially if O’Malley gets his hand raised later in the main event. Vera is the only fighter to defeat “Suga Sean” and Munhoz fought O’Malley to a no-contest (eye poke) last July after winning the first round against him.
Former middleweight champion Chris Weidman is set to headline the preliminary card against Brad Tavares. Weidman is returning to competition following a 28-month layoff after sustaining a gruesome leg injury in his fight with Uriah Hall at UFC 261.
The finals of the lightweight and bantamweight tournaments for the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter reality series are featured on these prelims. Austin Hubbard meets Kurt Holobaugh at 155 pounds and Canadian Brad Katona takes on Cody Gibson at 135. Katona can become the first fighter to win two separate seasons of The Ultimate Fighter if he gets past Gibson, who happened to be Sterling’s first UFC opponent.
All 24 fighters schedule to compete on the card successfully made weight Friday.
Here is the full UFC 292 lineup (with corresponding odds):
MAIN CARD
— Aljamain Sterling (-225) vs. Sean O’Malley (+170)
— Zhang Weili (-360) vs. Amanda Lemos (+280)
— Ian Machado Garry (-560) vs. Neil Magny (+380)
— Da’Mon Blackshear (+165) vs. Mario Bautista (-220)
— Marlon Vera (+170) vs. Pedro Munhoz (-225)
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Chris Weidman (+190) vs. Brad Tavares (-255)
— Gregory Rodrigues (-380) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+260)
— Austin Hubbard (-180) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+140)
— Brad Katona (+125) vs. Cody Gibson (-165)
— Andre Petroski (-240) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (-180)
— Andrea Lee (+260) vs. Natalia Silva (-380)
— Karine Silva (-150) vs. Maryna Moroz (+120)
(Odds listed above via Sports Interaction as of Friday evening and subject to change)
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