The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), 15-nation regional bloc, had threatened military intervention if the junta did not reinstate Bazoum by Sunday. Niger’s military leaders abruptly shut down its airspace as the deadline loomed, causing civilian aircraft to scramble into unexpected diversions midflight.
But there was no sign of military intervention Monday, and ECOWAS simply said it would hold another meeting Thursday.
Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim, senior analyst for the Sahel with the International Crisis Group, said the threat of military intervention had receded but not vanished.
“All these presidents say if the junta succeeds, the domino effect might continue to other countries,” he said. “They are very nervous about this.”
ECOWAS is hoping that some of the financial sanctions imposed on Niger will bite harder, he said. The landlocked nation’s borders have been closed, and its southern neighbor Nigeria — which supplies 75 percent of Niger’s electricity — has shut off power. The regional bank has suspended Nigerien banks, cutting off the nation’s access to credit. The cost of living has skyrocketed.
Bazoum’s strongest supporters among ECOWAS include Nigeria, Senegal, Benin and Ivory Coast. He is also backed by former colonial power France and the United States, which each have troops in the country. The new rulers have said French troops must leave but have been silent on military relations with the United States, which has two key bases in Niger used to monitor militant activity in the Sahel and the war in Sudan.
The United States paused more than $100 million in financial assistance to the Nigerien government last week, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Monday, and diplomats have said in recent days that conversations with the military leaders are largely limited to practical issues such as Bazoum’s freedom and evacuation flights. The United States has not recognized the new military rulers but continues to speak to civil servants and representatives from Bazoum’s government in a bid to restore him to power.
Mali and Burkina Faso, whose leaders also recently seized power in coups, are backing the junta and have strong Russian support. After ECOWAS issued its ultimatum, Mali and Burkina Faso said they would treat any military intervention as an act of war, and Niger appealed to Russia’s Wagner Group for help, according to media reports.
Niger is one of the world’s poorest countries, and it has a booming population. It mines uranium — although production has declined by about half over the past decade — and it was hoping to boost oil production from its current output of about 20,000 barrels per day to about 110,000 barrels using a pipeline under construction to Benin.
For more than a decade, the nation has been ravaged by an Islamist insurgency. But after U.S. and French forces spent years training elite military units, militant activity dipped — the first six months of 2023 were the most peaceful since 2018, said Peter J. Pham, the former U.S. envoy to the Sahel. Most of those units were out on the front lines when the coup occurred, he said.
Bazoum, who won the last election with 55 percent of the vote, had deepened military cooperation with both France and the United States. He had also dismissed army commanders implicated in corruption scandals and begun investigating officials in the oil sector linked to the previous president.
Pham said officials would now be searching for a way to de-escalate the risk of conflict without losing too much face. Ultimately, the junta would need a way to pay its soldiers, and the West needs a partner in the region and to keep out Wagner, he said. Inviting in Russian mercenaries should be a “red line” for the junta, he said.
The first step, he said, would be freeing Bazoum and his officials. Then Washington might be able to find a way to speak to the new leaders, continue development support and arrange some sort of cooperation — such as intelligence-sharing — that would stop short of direct military support for coup leaders, he said.
“The return to democracy should not be delayed: Niger had elections less than two years ago in which 70 percent of registered voters took part under much more challenging security conditions,” he said. “There is no excuse to delay the transition now when violence is low.”
