Senior form analyst Jamie Lynch runs the rule over those out for Group Two glory at Ascot on Saturday in the Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile, live on Sky Sports Racing.
The Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile is one of the most self-assured races around. Very occasionally, a horse will hijack it as a stepping stone to the top, like Mohaather in 2020, but by and large, it’s a Group Two race for Group Two milers and is very comfortable in that skin, confident in its place and in its patrons.
And this year’s field is exactly what it should be, a collection of competitors who either aren’t quite in the premier league or have recently had a promotion, though there are question marks over the heaviest hitters, compounded by the fact that plenty of rain is due in Ascot on Friday and Saturday.
Let’s take a deep dive into the line-up for Saturday’s showpiece, live on Sky Sports Racing…
Master Of The Seas
Jockey: James Doyle; Trainer: Charlie Appleby
I’m not sure whether he’s the forgotten flagbearer or a forgettable flagbearer for Godolphin, but either way, his career has been one of fragility and false dawns.
It seems an age ago since he was second only to Poetic Flare in the 2000 Guineas, but he has popped up every now and then to remind us of his power, like in the Earl of Sefton at the start of last year or the Zabeel Mile at the beginning of this one, after which his proverbial battery went flat once more.
In a parallel universe, he’s probably the horse who Modern Games has been for the stable in the last few years, but setbacks have downsized his CV, and he’s back from another absence here, with a penalty to carry for his win in the Zabeel Mile in which he beat handicappers in Shelir and I Am Superman.
He has an entry in the Sussex Stakes, a statement of faith in him, and his very best would indeed be too good for these, but there’s a big doubt about him reproducing it after all his issues and on ground potentially softer than he’s ever faced if the forecast rain arrives.
Master Of The Seas won the Group Three Earl Of Sefton Stakes last year.
Aldaary
Jim Crowley; William Haggas
The surface stats send you straight towards him: he has been beaten only once from seven starts when the ground has been softer than good, and he’s three from five at Ascot.
However, this is one instance where, in assessment, the bigger picture makes way for a single brushstroke, considering the circumstances around it, his comeback from a year out (fractured a cannon bone), albeit on faster going than ideal at Newmarket, where he went with little zip as favourite for the Criterion (plugged and chugged into fourth), and it’s quite a quick turnaround – just two weeks – to pull himself together for this.
This is William Haggas we’re dealing with, of course, a master trainer who’s clearly happy to let Aldaary roll again so soon, as well as enter him in the Sussex Stakes, but it’s just hard to back a horse at the top of the market who looked so laboured on his recent return from a lengthy lay-off, when everything used to come so easily to him, at least on easy ground, though that alone would be reason for a revival in the Summer Mile.
Aldaary and Jim Crowley landed a Listed prize last season.
Angel Bleu
Hector Crouch; Ralph Beckett
There’s a faint whiff of Kinross about Angel Bleu, beyond the same connections, and it wasn’t until around this stage of his four-year-old campaign that Kinross started to show his true colours, the return to softer ground the catalyst for him, as it could be for Angel Bleu.
Angel Bleu has raced four times on soft or heavy conditions: he won a Pontefract novice, the Vintage at Goodwood, the Group One Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, and the Group One Criterium International at Saint-Cloud, all as a juvenile.
Last year was pretty much a write-off, restricted to just three races, but he has successfully course-corrected this season, without the opportunity to express himself on testing ground, doing about all he could in the Queen Anne last time when seventh at 50/1, amid some traffic and trouble.
The more the rain falls, the better his chance, with a feeling that he may yet follow in the footprints of top team-mate Kinross.
Angel Bleu and Frankie Dettori win the Group One Prix Criterium International at Saint-Cloud.
Classic Causeway
Ben Curtis; Kenneth McPeek
Has a Grade One on his resume, last year’s Belmont Derby, in which he saw off Nations Pride and Stone Age, though that’s an outlier, and his resting rate is more that of a Grade Three operator in America.
Excusably embarrassed in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, when trailing in last, and though dropping in class and trip, this is probably going to be beyond him, too, while rain-softened ground would be completely alien to him.
Dashing Roger
Billy Loughnane; William Stone
A course-and-distance winner, but that was at the Shergar Cup two years ago, off a mark of 99, and he has only just stopped his slide last time when third from a reduced rating of 85. Has no business in this company.
Jimi Hendrix
Dougie Costello; Ralph Beckett
‘Same same, but different,’ is an oft-heard expression amongst locals and tourists in South-East Asia, as a means of understanding each other and a way of thinking. It’s also the fitting phrase for Jimi Hendrix, comparing his task here to his career apex in the Royal Hunt Cup: the course is the same, the trip is the same, but the dynamics are oh so different.
The straight mile at Ascot is poles apart from this round mile at Ascot, and then there’s the contrast in company, his first Group race here.
To win a Hunt Cup off 103 takes a pattern-class performance, but the toll for the bridge crossing is more than mere numbers, as Group racing tests skills and speed that strongly-run handicaps don’t, and no horse in the 20-year history of the Summer Mile has won it straight out of handicaps.
Jimi Hendrix (left) beats stablemate Sonny Liston in the Royal Hunt Cup.
Mighty Ulysses
Rab Havlin; John and Thady Gosden
A developing force last year, slightly under the radar, but he was beaten a matter of heads and necks into fifth in the St James’s Palace Stakes over course and distance prior to beating the now 116-rated Alflaila at the July meeting, all of which suggests he’s a Group Two-class miler, at the least.
The problem for him is two-fold, and interlinked to some extent: if the absence doesn’t get him, then the ground possibly will. He’s returning from an 11-month absence after presumably picking up a problem when beaten favourite in the Strensall (behind the aforementioned Alflaila), taking a long time to make it back, and he has never before faced ground softer than good which, if it gets that way, is an exposing enemy to any flaws in full fitness.
New Kingdom
Harry Davies; Charlie Appleby
A creeper who has cautiously climbed the handicap by a pound or two here and there, but he doesn’t yet look ready for a Group graduation, which begs the question of why is he here?
The answer, I think, is to service his stablemate, because New Kingdom is a front-runner by nature, and Master Of The Seas is a keen-goer by nature, hence it makes sense to team them together, for the Summer Mile and maybe for the future.
Regal Reality
Richard Kingscote; Sir Michael Stoute
Know your place. In British racing, as in British politics, class has held the central position in studies since research ramped up in the 1960s. By design, there’s no pluralism in the pattern system, created to categorise the thoroughbred, and Regal Reality knows it and lives it more than most.
Across his seven seasons of active service, he has won five Group threes, and that’s his limit, as he’s 0/7 at Group Two level (and 0/5 in Group Ones).
He retains all of his appetite and ability at the age of eight, emphasised by Epsom, and there’s a chance that this renewal of the Summer Mile reduces to more his grade, with some doubts over the bigger guns, but if something runs to a rating north of 110 then that will do for him, plus he’s probably at his best under fast conditions.
Regal Reality (light blue, middle) beats Highland Avenue in the Betfred Diomed Stakes at Epsom.
Jamie Lynch’s verdict
This is rather more complex than the usual Summer Mile rules whereby the established order is reflected in the result (nine of the last 10 favourites have won), as the top dogs this time have a cloud over them, Master Of The Seas coming in cold and Aldaary having a point to prove after his rusty return.
The forecast rain adds another layer of uncertainty, but not for ANGEL BLEU, who has been holding his own in smart company all season but may kick it up a notch if getting the sort of ground on which he’s unbeaten. He looks the best bet.
