The top U.S. diplomat is planning to meet with Foreign Minister Qin Gang and potentially President Xi Jinping as part of a months long effort to reopen lines of communication between the world’s two largest economies amid historically poor relations.
The trip will mark Blinken’s first trip to China as secretary of state and the first time a U.S. secretary of state traveled to China in five years — a large gap in high-level contact U.S. officials are trying to make up for. “There is no substitute for in-person meetings,” said Dan Kritenbrink, the top U.S. diplomat for Asia, in a phone call with reporters on Wednesday.
Blinken will be walking a tightrope as China hawks in Congress insist on an increasingly hard line from the United States and his Chinese counterparts greet him with a distinct suspicion that the Biden administration’s goal is to weaken and suppress China.
U.S. officials have downplayed the likelihood of a significant breakthrough on major issues during the trip, such as the fate of Taiwan, the war in Ukraine and human rights concerns, but say Blinken will prioritize raising U.S. “values and interests,” establishing reliable communication channels, and exploring cooperation on climate change and economic issues, said Kritenbrink.
“We’re coming to Beijing with a realistic, competent approach and a sincere desire to manage our competition in the most responsible way possible,” said Kritenbrink.
Blinken’s visit was initially agreed upon by President Biden and Xi during a meeting in Indonesia last year, but was postponed after the spy balloon imbroglio saw both governments cast themselves as the victim of unchecked hubris by the other. In the months since, the two sides have clashed over Taiwan, Ukraine and a series of dangerous encounters between the Chinese and American militaries. On Saturday, the White House disclosed the existence of a Chinese eavesdropping post in Cuba.
“Now is precisely the time for intense diplomacy,” said Kurt Campbell, the White House’s coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs.
The Biden administration has made clear it is eager to restore ties — in particular to restore military-to-military channels — which U.S. officials say are critical to ensuring that an accident between U.S. ships or planes doesn’t escalate into a military confrontation.
“Secretary Blinken will advocate strongly that these lines of communication are necessary, they’re how mature, strong militaries interact, and the stakes are just too high to avoid these critical lines of communication,” Campbell said.
Chinese officials were reluctant to reschedule the trip with Blinken, concerned that Washington would use a forthcoming FBI investigation into the balloon incident to further embarrass Beijing. Chinese officials have said the aircraft was a weather balloon that was blown off course, and that Washington’s decision to shoot it down was gratuitous following Chinese statements that expressed regret over the incident.
China’s decision to host Blinken suggests that those concerns were allayed in recent weeks — though Beijing has still played hard-to-get in other channels.
Last month, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu declined a request for a meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of a security conference in Singapore.
The Pentagon said it regretted China’s decision, saying in a statement that it “believes strongly in the importance of maintaining open lines of military-to-military communication between Washington and Beijing to ensure that competition does not veer into conflict.”
The lack of communication between the two countries’ militaries has coincided with multiple close calls between U.S. and Chinese forces in the Pacific, including what the U.S. has described as an “unsafe interaction” between a Chinese warship and a U.S. destroyer in the Taiwan Strait and an incident in May involving close maneuvers between Chinese and U.S. warplanes over the South China Sea.
“It won’t be long before somebody gets hurt,” White House spokesperson John Kirby said earlier this month.
Wang Wenbin, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said that “the measures taken by the Chinese military are completely reasonable, legitimate, and professional and safe.”
Danny Russel, a China scholar at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said the visit “will be challenging because while both sides have an interest in stabilizing the relationship, they each want to define the steps the other must take to avoid further tensions or worse.”
“Secretary Blinken has his own list of concerns and complaints to air with the Chinese side,” Russel added. “He will be mindful of the China hawks at home waiting to pounce on any sign the Biden administration is easing up on Chinese problematic behavior.”
Chinese officials view Blinken as one of the more hawkish members of Biden’s team, and expressed an interest in first meeting Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen ahead of the Blinken trip, according to people familiar with the discussions who spoke on the condition of anonymity to disclose sensitive diplomatic conversations.
Blinken, however, remains one of Biden’s closest confidants, and the president’s decision to have him visit first is a sign of his support from within Biden’s inner circle.
“Beijing is tolerating a Blinken visit in order to facilitate engagement with Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, who they view as more accommodating of their interests,” said Ivan Kanapathy, who served as deputy senior director for Asia in the Trump and Biden administrations and is now a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The war in Ukraine is expected to loom large in Blinken’s discussions.
China, Russia’s top trading partner, has not provided lethal aid to Moscow since the conflict began, but U.S. officials remain concerned it might begin doing so. Beijing, with its manufacturing might, could impact the trajectory of the war as the militaries of Ukraine and Russia struggle to acquire enough munitions to defeat the other side in a conflict that increasingly takes the form of an artillery war.
“Secretary Blinken will continue to make clear U.S. expectations regarding” the provision of lethal aid, said Kritenbrink.
Blinken called the Chinese foreign minister on Wednesday to discuss the trip and express the “importance of maintaining open lines of communication,” said State Department spokesman Matt Miller. Beijing’s summary of the call was notably frosty. It said that Qin, the Chinese diplomat, instructed the United States to “stop interfering in China’s internal affairs” and “stop undermining China’s sovereignty.”
The situation in Taiwan, the self-governed island that China claims as its own territory, is likely to be the most contentious topic that Blinken addresses on the trip. Beijing views U.S. weapons shipments to Taiwan as a violation of its sovereignty — a position Washington disputes.
Kritenbrink, referencing the waterway that separates Taiwan from China, said cross-strait relations will remain “the most important and challenging and sensitive issues between the United States and China” but predicted that Blinken will “reiterate America’s abiding interest in the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”
Ellen Nakashima contributed to this report.
