Harry Enten: “It’s not unheard of for candidates polling below 5% (or even at 1%) at this point in the cycle to win their party’s nomination. Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were barely registering in primary surveys at this stage in the 1976 and 1992 cycles, respectively.”
“The problem for Christie et al. lies with the two candidates polling above 5%: former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Trump is polling in the mid-50s, while DeSantis is a distant second in the low 20s.”
“When candidates such as Carter and Clinton mounted their rise in the polls, the polling leader wasn’t hitting 20%. There is no historical precedent for candidates down 50 points at this stage going on to win their party’s nomination for president.”
