CNN
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Even before former President Donald Trump was indicted this week over his alleged mishandling of classified documents, Bobbie Kilberg was in the “Never Trump” camp. And the veteran Republican fundraiser worries that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – given his public feuding with Disney, one of his state’s largest employers – might prove too “polarizing” to capture the White House in the end.
So Kilberg – who has spent decades raising money for GOP presidential contenders – has thrown her support behind former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a longtime friend who entered the 2024 race this week. Although she said she would grudgingly vote for DeSantis should he win nomination, Kilberg believes Christie has a “clear lane” to distinguish himself as “somebody who is willing to take Donald Trump on directly and forcefully.”
Kilberg said dozens of other fundraisers and donors had reached out to her in recent weeks, eager to help Christie’s long-shot campaign. And five more called in the wake of Thursday’s federal indictment of Trump, she added – a sign of donor appetite for an alternative.
There are many candidates to choose from. Christie – a onetime Trump ally who has sharply criticized the former president for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election – joined a field of candidates that grew even larger this week. Two more contenders kicked off their campaigns Wednesday: former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.
Trump, DeSantis, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and talk radio host Larry Elder all have previously announced their candidacies for the GOP nomination.
Trump’s critics in political fundraising circles fear that even with his looming legal troubles, the 2024 contest is shaping up as a repeat of 2016, when the brash then-celebrity real-estate developer seized on GOP divisions to bulldoze a path through 16 rivals – including Christie – to the nomination and then the White House.
“Too big a Republican field is just handing Donald Trump the nomination on a silver platter,” said Chicago executive William Kunkler, an avowed Never Trumper and a longtime GOP donor.
Some deep-pocketed groups, including one aligned with billionaire industrialist Charles Koch, also have pledged to elevate a Trump rival, although it’s not clear at this stage whether all the outside organizations that oppose Trump will coalesce around a single candidate.
Asked for comment Thursday before the indictment news broke, Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung did not directly address the actions of the groups opposed to the former president but said that Trump was “dominating in poll after poll – both nationally and statewide – because voters want someone who can beat Joe Biden and retake the White House.”
Trump has denied any wrongdoing, and has cast the federal investigation and indictment as “election interference.” His campaign – which saw a surge in donations after his March indictment in a separate New York case connected to an alleged hush-money scheme – also quickly sought to raise political donations off the latest indictment news.
A CNN poll in May underscores the challenges Trump’s rivals face. He was the first choice of 53% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters in the primary, even after his earlier indictment. Trump’s support was roughly double the 26% who backed DeSantis as their first choice.
Further complicating the picture for his political adversaries: fundraising and polling thresholds recently announced by the Republican National Committee to participate in the first primary debate threaten to sideline newer entrants in the race.
A concerted effort by outside groups to elevate a Trump rival could help reshape the GOP field.
The Club for Growth, an anti-tax group that is one of the biggest independent spenders in GOP politics, hasn’t yet endorsed a 2024 candidate yet. But it has made no secret of its disdain for Trump, pointedly excluding the former president from a gathering of high-dollar donors earlier this year and running ads that criticize his stance on Social Security.
Meanwhile, the influential conservative network aligned with Koch is pledging to back a single Republican it sees as likely to win the general election – and to unleash its grassroots army on that person’s behalf. Doing so could imperil Trump’s route to the nomination.
Americans for Prosperity, the flagship group in the sprawling network associated with Koch, has begun phone and in-person outreach to likely and potential GOP primary voters in four early nominating states – Iowa, South Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada. Goals include expanding the primary electorate and uncovering issues that will resonate with these voters.
“Any successful candidate will need to earn the support of those Americans – and when we have a sense of who that candidate is, AFP Action will bring the full force of its grassroots efforts to bear to coalesce voters behind that individual,” Emily Seidel, CEO of Americans for Prosperity and senior adviser to AFP Action, the group’s political arm, said in a statement to CNN
The group has not set a public timeline for its endorsement but expects to engage in the race before the first primaries and caucuses, according to an AFP official.
In the statement, Seidel said the early conversations with voters have shown that many, including those who say they support Trump, are “receptive to arguments that he is a weak candidate, his focus on 2020 is a liability, and his lack of appeal with independent voters is a problem.”
“Many Republicans are ready to move on,” she added, “they just need to see another candidate step up and show they can lead and win.”
AFP has not publicly announced a budget for its presidential activity, but the group’s spending in past elections has, at times, rivaled that of the RNC.
In addition, super PACs – which can accept unlimited sums from ultra-rich donors and corporations — could help individual candidates stand out from the crowd.
Robert Bigelow, a hotel magnate and wealthy space entrepreneur, contributed $10 million of the $30 million initially raised by Never Back Down, a super PAC supporting DeSantis’ presidential ambitions, a source familiar with the donation told CNN. He had previously donated $10 million to DeSantis’ state political committee, which is expected to help fund Never Back Down.
Scott, the South Carolina senator, is polling in the single digits, well behind Trump and DeSantis. But he has had the backing of billionaire Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, who donated $30 million to a pro-Scott super PAC in the 2022 cycle.
Ellison, with a net worth that Forbes pegs at more than $130 billion, was on hand for Scott’s campaign kickoff last month in North Charleston, South Carolina – where the Republican praised him as “one of my mentors.”
Never Back Down and the pro-Scott super PAC Trust in the Mission have put $10.8 million and just shy of $5 million, respectively, into early advertising, according to a tally of spending collected by AdImpact.
The pro-Trump super PAC – MAGA Inc. – has spent even more, topping $18.7 million.
On Friday, following the news of Trump’s indictment, a pro-Christie super PAC launched its first ad of the campaign. The digital spot by the Tell It Like It Is PAC features Christie attacking Trump’s qualifications.
Some of the GOP’s big financiers have already publicly defected from Trump, including Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman and cosmetics heir Ronald Lauder. Others are still weighing their options.
“Let the debates happen,” John Catsimatidis, a New York billionaire who has supported Trump in the past and has a history of backing both Republicans and Democrats in national politics. “Let the American people listen to all the candidates and make up their own minds.”
Political observers, including some top donors, warn that big dollars alone will not determine the Republican primary outcome.
Sarah Longwell – a Trump critic and publisher of the Bulwark website who runs GOP focus groups around the country – said establishment Republican donors shouldn’t underestimate how deeply GOP voters feel tied to Trump.
“They have voted for him twice. They have defended him at Thanksgiving dinner tables,” she said of Trump supporters. “They have made their accommodations. They have made their rationalizations.”
“I think the people (running for the presidency) who appeal to Republican donors are no longer the same people who appeal to Republican voters,” she added.
Art Pope, a North Carolina retail chain chief and veteran Republican activist and donor who is closely aligned with the Koch network, said the politician who wins AFP Action’s support “will benefit.”
But Pope – who is backing Pence’s candidacy – said an important factor will be a candidate’s ability to attract the small-dollar donations needed to sustain a campaign.
“There are no smoke-filled rooms,” he told CNN. “It’s not like a bunch of donors can get into a backroom and decide … who’s going to be the alternative to Donald Trump.”
The RNC’s decision to set fundraising and polling thresholds to qualify for the first GOP debate on August 23 in Milwaukee looms over the field.
To make the stage, candidates must hit at least 1% in several national polls recognized by the RNC – with some polling from early states counting as well. Qualifying candidates also will need a minimum of 40,000 unique donors – a requirement that already has set off alarms among some contenders just establishing their candidacies.
Trump has amassed a substantial small-donor base in his White House bids but has signaled he may skip the first debates. DeSantis, who announced raising a record $8.2 million in the first 24 hours of his candidacy, already has met the 40,000-donor RNC threshold, according to his campaign.
But others could be sidelined.
Hutchinson, the former Arkansas governor, formally announced his bid in late April and has argued that the RNC should have set only minimal criteria for the early debate as newer entrants build their campaign infrastructure.
He has begun running Facebook ads that seek donations as small as $3 “to help me get on the debate stage and move our nation forward.”
