Cap Comparables: Where does Caufield’s deal fit among league’s young stars?

The Montreal Canadiens’ future got a little more steady Monday, as the club announced the signing of a long-term deal with young franchise cornerstone Cole Caufield.

With the eight-year, $62.8-million pact ($7.85 million AAV) now inked, the Canadiens have both Caufield and young captain Nick Suzuki under contract for much of the next decade, with the duo — along with 2022 No. 1 pick Juraj Slafkovsky — set to lead Montreal through its next era.

Through his first 123 games in the big leagues, the 22-year-old Caufield has already proven how instrumental he might just be to that next era. The USNTDP and NCAA standout — who claimed the 2021 Hobey Baker Award as college hockey’s best, and has racked up gold medals and an MVP nod for Team USA — is coming off a career year in Montreal.

After potting 23 goals and 43 points through 67 games in his first full season (following a 10-game stint a year prior that saw him collect four goals), Caufield took off in his second NHL campaign. The winger put up 26 goals and 36 points in just 46 games before injury ended his season early — projected over a full 82-game season, Caufield’s pace had him on track for roughly 45 goals and 65 points by the season’s end.

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Most notable for Caufield and the Canadiens moving forward is how the young winger has taken to head coach Martin St. Louis’s guidance since the former scoring leader, MVP and Stanley Cup champ took over the team’s bench. In 83 games with St. Louis as his head coach, Caufield’s amassed 48 goals and 71 points for Montreal. Though his scoring sample was limited to half a season in 2022-23, the 22-year-old’s 0.57 goals-per-game pace ranked 10th among all NHL scorers — just below Alex Ovechkin’s 0.58, and just above Jason Robertson (0.56), Jack Hughes (0.55) and Auston Matthews (0.54).

The Canadiens paid well for that progress and potential, even with Caufield coming off a January shoulder surgery that ended his 2022-23 season early. Here’s how the young sniper’s deal stacks up with other comparable contracts around the league:

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Cole Caufield #GoHabsGo
$7.85M x 8 yr extension

Contract Breakdown:
Yr 1: 4.975M + 5M SB
Yr 2: 4.975M + 5M SB
Yr 3: 9.975M
Yr 4: 8.705M
Yr 5: 6.215M
Yr 6: 5.985M (15 team NTC)
Yr 7: 5.985M (10 team NTC)
Yr 8: 5.985M (5 team NTC)

Rep'd by @CAAHockey https://t.co/Se3pocw2pM

— CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) June 5, 2023

NICK SUZUKI, C, Montreal Canadiens
Contract: 8 years, $63 million ($7.875 million AAV)

The most important comparable for the Canadiens was that of Caufield’s own teammate and captain, Suzuki.

That Caufield’s eventual AAV wound up just a shade below Suzuki’s was no coincidence — as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said Monday, the club entered into negotiations with their young sniper focused on two things: term, and getting Caufield in somewhere around Suzuki’s number.

Production-wise, the two teammates stack up similarly through the first two full seasons of their careers, with Caufield getting a slight edge — Suzuki scored at a 0.18 goals-per-game clip and 0.57 points-per-game clip in Year 1, followed by a Year 1 that saw him score 0.27 goals per game and 0.73 points per game. Caufield put up 0.34 goals per game and 0.64 points per game in his first full season, and followed that up with 0.57 goals per game and 0.78 points per game last year.

Though Caufield’s numbers were a slight cut above Suzuki’s, the latter forward’s role differs from his young teammate, Suzuki bearing more defensive responsibility as a centreman, and more leadership responsibility as the team’s captain. Those additions earned him the distinction of being his club’s highest-paid skater, as Caufield’s new deal comes in $200,000 below his teammate’s.

CLAYTON KELLER, C, Arizona Coyotes
Contract: 8 years, $57.2 million ($7.15 million AAV)

Elsewhere around the league, Arizona’s Clayton Keller is in a similar camp, the Coyotes centreman’s 2019 extension landing him in the same salary range.

Production-wise, Keller wasn’t far off Caufield’s early rates. The young pivot scored at a 0.28 goals-per-game pace and 0.79 points-per-game pace in what was a standout rookie campaign, before regressing in Year 2 with a 0.17 goals-per-game, 0.57 points-per-game sophomore season. Overall, Keller’s offensive numbers were fairly similar to Caufield’s, but like Suzuki, he fell short of Caufield in the goal-scoring department.

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Though Keller again has a different role as a centreman — and benefitted from being on a team with, at the time, few other young stars — the Arizona cornerstone’s extension came in a fair amount lower than the deal Caufield just signed, as Keller inked an eight-year, $57.2-million pact with a $7.15 million AAV.

ANDREI SVECHNIKOV, RW, Carolina Hurricanes
Contract: 8 years, $62 million ($7.75 million)

A more apt comparison might be Canes standout Andrei Svechnikov, who similarly does his damage on the wing, and is more of a comparable goal-scoring threat.

Svechnikov finished his rookie campaign with a similar stat line to Caufield’s first full season, albeit with more games under his belt. The Hurricanes winger scored at a 0.24 goals-per-game pace and a 0.45 points-per-game pace in Year 1, and then bumped those numbers up to 0.35 goals per game and 0.90 points per game in Year 2.

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Caufield potted goals at better rate through his first pair of seasons, but didn’t reach the same overall scoring pace as Svechnikov managed in his second campaign. That said, Svechnikov got a third year in before he inked his extension with Carolina, and his numbers dipping slightly to 0.27 goals per game and 0.76 points per game in that final ELC year.

In the end, the Canes winger’s extension landed essentially on par with Caufield’s new deal, Svechnikov signing an eight-year pact just $800,000 below Caufield’s total haul.

BRADY TKACHUK, LW, Ottawa Senators
Contract: 7 years, $57.5 million ($8.2 million AAV)

Compare that with other young wingers around the game, who wound up inking seven-year pacts as opposed to Caufield’s eight.

Senators captain Brady Tkachuk had a remarkably similar rookie campaign to Caufield, his 0.31 goals per game and 0.63 points per game nearly on par with the Canadiens’ young gun’s line. In Year 2, though, Tkachuk held at that level while Caufield’s rates improved, the Sens winger scoring 0.30 goals per game and 0.62 points per game as a sophomore. Tkachuk also had a third year under his belt before extending, and again held true to that pace, scoring at a 0.30 goals-per-game rate and 0.64 points-per-game rate that season.

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But there’s no question Tkachuk’s a different type of winger compared to Caufield, the former a far more physical force and, having been given the ‘C’ in Ottawa, his club’s central leader. The Sens captain’s deal came in at seven years, with a higher AAV than the others on this list, at $8.2 million.

MATTHEW BOLDY, LW, Minnesota Wild
Contract: 7 years, $49 million ($7 million AAV)

On the other end of that seven-year spectrum is Caufield’s former U.S. national team teammate, Matthew Boldy.

The Minnesota Wild winger produced at a rate on par with Caufield in his first big-league go-round, putting up 0.31 goals per game and 0.83 points per game in his 47-game rookie season. In a sophomore campaign that saw him reach the 30-goal plateau, Boldy didn’t quite match Caufield’s sniping pace (scoring 0.38 goals per game), but finished level with an overall 0.77 points-per-game pace.

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Like Tkachuk, the winger and his club opted for a seven-year pact. But Boldy’s came in quite a bit lower than both Tkachuk and Caufield, the Wild forward’s AAV landing $850,000 below the Canadiens standout’s.

For Caufield, the differentiator that clearly set him apart compared to other young forwards around the league was his goal-scoring ability, which comes as no surprise given the reputation he’s already made for himself in the game. Though he’s yet to show the full weight of his potential in that area, the pace at which he fluttered the twine in 2022-23, and the potential of what he could do moving forward, earned him a bump over some of the other names on this list.

All told, Caufield’s $7.85-million AAV next season will slot him into a group of young scorers in the $7.5-$8-million AAV range that includes Josh Norris ($7.95 million AAV), Suzuki ($7.875 million AAV), Kevin Fiala ($7.875 million AAV), Jason Robertson ($7.75 million AAV), and Svechnikov ($7.75 million AAV).

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