Spanish GP: F1 2023’s true pecking order to be revealed at Circuit de Catalunya this weekend?

Formula 1 heads to Barcelona for the Spanish GP this weekend and it could be a pivotal point in the 2023 season.

The Circuit de Catalunya is arguably the most familiar to the drivers and teams, having regularly played host to testing sessions over the years. Several teams will be running upgrades on their cars this weekend, either for the first time or certainly running them for the first time in representative conditions.

“Barcelona is the best judge of a chassis – it’s all about chassis and aero there,” Sky Sports F1‘s Martin Brundle said.

So as the development war steps up, could we see F1 2023’s true pecking order begin to emerge?

Expect Red Bull to still lead the way

Traditionally, Barcelona has not been the happiest of hunting grounds for Red Bull. The team has won there only four times – in 2010, 2011, 2016 and 2022 – and last year’s victory was given a helping hand by Charles Leclerc suffering a Ferrari engine while leading.

But Red Bull are unbeaten in 2023 so far and have yet to have another car within 20 seconds of theirs when finishing a grand prix in race conditions.

Changes to the Circuit de Catalunya also appeal to the strengths of the RB19. The slow chicane in the final sector will not feature this weekend as F1 returns to the circuit’s original final two corners, and the high-speed right handers will help the Red Bull sling shot onto the long pit-straight where its straight-line speed advantage can be maximised.

“It’s a Red Bull weekend,” former Williams and McLaren driver Juan Pablo Montoya said on the latest Sky Sports F1 Podcast.

“It is 100 per cent a Red Bull track. It’s a high-speed track and the highlight of the Aston Martin is slow speed corners and they got rid of the slowest corners in the final sector.”

Sky Sports F1‘s David Croft added: “I don’t see how anybody at the moment [gets ahead of Red Bull]. It’s very fast in a straight line and very fast through high-speed corners.”

Red Bull are also reportedly set to have updates this weekend, with advisor Helmut Marko telling Austrian outlet oe24 that the team are “going to try something new in Barcelona.”

So while Red Bull are expected to remain out front, how will things shape up behind as Aston Martin, Mercedes and Ferrari duke it out in their upgraded machinery?

Mercedes look to get true read on W14’s upgrades

The big intrigue heading to Barcelona is how Mercedes’ upgrades to their W14 will truly perform.

Initially scheduled for the cancelled Emilia Romagna GP, Mercedes debuted their new bodywork, floor and front suspension in Monaco. Lewis Hamilton and George Russell finished fourth and fifth in Monte Carlo, although the unique nature of the street circuit meant it was difficult to assess their true performance. As Brundle put it: “It’s like racing in a washing machine.”

However, Hamilton, Russell and team boss Toto Wolff felt there were immediately positive signs from the updated W14 and will seek to confirm its true potential this weekend.

“We were in the mix with Aston Martin and with Ferrari. On a positive note, that may be encouraging because we have never been really good here,” Mercedes boss Wolff said after the Monaco GP.

“But we really need to be careful, we have to go to Barcelona and collect more data, it’s a new baseline. I don’t expect us to be clearing Aston Martin and Ferrari there either. It is more about understanding, okay, what does this car do now, and how do we need to set it up.”

Mercedes find themselves only a point behind Aston Martin in the battle for second in the constructors’ championship despite appearing to have the fourth-fastest car on pure pace so far in 2023.

Aston Martin to close up to Red Bull or fall back?

Aston Martin have had the second-quickest car so far this season and only Max Verstappen’s brilliance and some bad luck with rain intensity cost them a pole position and possibly race win in Monaco.

Fernando Alonso heads to his home race – and the venue of his most recent win in 2013 – with five podiums in six grands prix for 2023’s surprise team. Aston Martin will be introducing the second half of an upgrade that was initially due in Imola at the Spanish GP.

The question is whether these updates will offset the advances Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari have made and see them move closer to the championship leaders or be fighting to get on the podium at all.

“We have to see in a normal circuit, what is the package of Mercedes and the upgrades that Ferrari will bring apparently to Barcelona as well,” Alonso said.

“So we have to have our feet on the ground and as I said in Miami, it’s going to be a few weekends in the year that we will just be seventh and eighth and we have to accept that and some others that we will fight for podiums.

“So I will not get into Barcelona thinking that I will win, and disappoint anyone. We have to have our feet on the ground.”

Ferrari’s substantial upgrade to improve Sunday form?

Ferrari will be introducing a substantial upgrade to their inconsistent SF23 car, having had to delay its introduction with the Emilia Romagna GP’s cancellation.

While Leclerc has managed to fight for and claim a pole position in qualifying sessions, the Monegasque and Carlos Sainz have struggled to gain confidence in the car, and been critical of the “knife-edge” they find themselves driving on come race days.

Ferrari have already brought a new floor and diffuser to their car and this weekend’s update will include new bodywork.

“This week we will have a better view of the race pace,” team principal Fred Vasseur said. “Barcelona is more relevant and we will have a better view of the situation.

“I hope that we will do a step forward in Barcelona but it won’t be the end of the development for the car.”

Will Alpine make it five-team fight for podium spots?

The mood around Alpine has transformed in the last month. At the Miami GP, Alpine CEO Laurent Rossi was labelling performances “unacceptable” and “amateurish” and threatening prompt changes if the team’s form did not improve.

But Alpine’s upgrades have brought that upturn in form with the team sealing a double points finish in the USA before Esteban Ocon claimed a superb podium at the Monaco GP and Pierre Gasly got a season’s-best seventh place.

And the French outfit are bullish about getting among the fight for the final podium positions behind Red Bull.

“I fully expect to be in front of Mercedes and with Ferrari at the next race,” sporting director Alan Permane said, while also confirming another upgrade will be on the Alpine in Barcelona.

“Max is too far away, and when Checo is on his game, he will be as well.

“Fernando is going to be very difficult but I don’t see why we can’t race with Ferrari and Mercedes, which we have done here (in Monaco) and in Miami as well.

“They were quicker than us ultimately, but we were in a race with them. That is where we are aiming for.”

F1 returns to a ‘traditional’ circuit

This weekend will also be the first time since the season-opening Bahrain GP that Formula 1 has raced at what could be termed a ‘normal’ race track.

The 2023 season has been frontloaded with grands prix on street circuits – Jeddah, Melbourne, Baku, Miami and Monaco.

But now the drivers and teams have a traditional F1 weekend to look forward to; three practice sessions on a predictably evolving circuit on which to dial in their car set-ups for qualifying and race day.

The old adage is that if your car works well in Barcelona, it will work well anywhere. If that trend continues, this weekend may well give a glimpse of how the rest of the season will pan out.

Sky Sports F1’s live Spanish GP schedule

Thursday June 1
2pm: Drivers’ Press Conference

Friday June 2
8.50am: F3 Practice
10.00am: F2 Practice
12pm: Spanish GP Practice One (session starts 12.30pm)
1.55pm: F3 Qualifying
2.50pm: F2 Qualifying
3.45pm: Spanish GP Practice Two (session starts 4pm)
5.15pm: The F1 Show: Spain

Saturday June 3
9.25am: F3 Sprint
11.15am: Spanish GP Practice Three (session starts 11.30am)
1.10pm: F2 Sprint
2.15pm: Spanish GP Qualifying build-up
3pm: Spanish GP Qualifying
6.15pm: IndyCar – Detroit GP Qualifying

Sunday June 4
8.50am: F3 Feature Race
10.20am: F2 Feature Race
12.30pm: Grand Prix Sunday Spanish GP build-up
2pm: THE SPANISH GRAND PRIX
4pm: Chequered Flag Spanish GP reaction
5.45pm: Indy NXT – Detroit GP
8pm: IndyCar – Detroit GP

Will Red Bull’s winning run in F1 2023 continue at the Spanish GP? Watch all the action live on Sky Sports F1 from June 2-4 Get Sky Sports