Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s longtime incumbent leader, appeared to be heading to a presidential election runoff for the first time in his career after falling short of the 50 percent needed to win in national elections on Sunday.
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Source: Anadolu Agency (unofficial results).
The provinces that contain Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey’s two largest cities, voted for Kemal Kilicdaroglu after both voted for Mr. Erdogan in 2018.
The country’s prosperous coastal region voted in favor of the opposition, as it has in the past.
Turkey’s Kurdish population, who live mostly in the southeast, voted overwhelmingly in support of the opposition.
Central Turkey, a stronghold for Mr. Erdogan, voted mostly in the president’s favor.
Sources: Anadolu Agency (unofficial election results), WorldPop (population density).
Note: Not all results have been reported. Some results may change.
Mr. Erdogan still had the most votes of any candidate, including the opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, as of Monday, upsetting opposition supporters who were expecting a swift victory.
Mr. Erdogan appeared to have the edge as he likely headed into a runoff on May 28. The right-wing supporters of a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, are more likely to vote for Mr. Erdogan in the runoff, analysts say, increasing his winning chances.
Even so, almost every part of the country shifted against Mr. Erdogan compared with the most recent presidential election in 2018, according to preliminary results from Anadolu Agency, a state news organization.
2023 Erdogan vote share compared to 2018
Lower Erdogan vote share
Higher Erdogan vote share
In the areas hit hardest by the earthquake in February, most provinces shifted away from Mr. Erdogan.
Mr. Erdogan was ahead in most provinces in Central Turkey, his traditional stronghold, but he lost many votes there compared with 2018.
Sources: Anadolu Agency (unofficial election results), U.S. Geological Survey (earthquakes).
Some of the sharpest rebukes came from the provinces around Turkey’s two largest cities, Istanbul and Ankara, where Mr. Erdogan won in 2018 but was behind on Monday, and from areas in central Turkey that have traditionally provided Mr. Erdogan’s core support. Mr. Erdogan was still well ahead in most provinces there, but he lost votes compared with 2018.
Voters also leaned away from Mr. Erdogan in the regions hit hardest by the earthquake. Voters there told The Times they were voting for Mr. Kilicdaroglu because of the government’s earthquake response as well as its handling of the economy.
Shifts were more muted in areas where opposition politicians have generally done well, along the Mediterranean coast to the west and in Turkey’s southeast, home to most of the Kurdish population.
Presidential election results by year
Candidates need 50 percent of vote to avoid a runoff election
Sources: Supreme Election Council, Anadolu Agency (unofficial election results).
Note: Results from 2023 are preliminary. The graphic includes all candidates who received at least 5 percent of the vote.
The vote was in many ways a referendum on the performance of Mr. Erdogan, Turkey’s dominant politician for 20 years.
