Ukrainian soldiers training at an undetermined location in Donetsk oblast, 4 April 2023.
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After eight months of intense and brutal fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces in and around Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, both sides are fatigued as they continue to fight over a town that is now little more than ruins, according to Western officials.
Speaking at a defense intelligence briefing Wednesday, Western officials — who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the situation on the ground in Ukraine — said Russian forces had made extremely slow progress in their efforts to capture Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, saying any advances over the last couple of weeks could be measured in meters.
A lull in recent activity had been due to poor weather, officials said, as well as “exhaustion on both sides.”
Russia was taking an increasing number of casualties, the officials said, and they believed its fighters were not in full control of Bakhmut, despite the head of Russia’s mercenary forces there claiming that his fighters had taken over the town’s main administration building last Sunday.
In any case, they noted that Bakhmut is no longer recognizable as it once was. “There isn’t a town left,” they said.
Ukraine’s Aidar battalion training at an undetermined location in the Donetsk oblast, 4 April 2023
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Russian forces, the majority of whom are mercenary units belonging to the Wagner Group, have been trying to advance in the wider Donetsk for months as fully occupying the region is a key aim for the Kremlin. While not strategically critical by itself, capturing the town is seen by Russia as a stepping stone to advance onto other regional cities such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Despite defense analysts assessing that Bakhmut has been gradually encircled by Russian forces to the north, east and south, Ukraine has refused to tactically withdraw from Bakhmut, instead vowing to reinforce and defend it. And so the fighting continues.
Western officials said Wednesday that Ukraine had surprised everybody with its tenacity and ability to hold off the Russians in Bakhmut and had been effective as a way to inflict as many casualties on Russia as possible.
Whether Ukraine could or should put forces into Bakhmut to retake the town just as they’re preparing for a large-scale counteroffensive — with little known about when and where this could start — was another question, officials said.
Bakhmut stands
For its part, Ukraine has brushed off any question that it’s facing a potential over-run by Russian forces there with Yuriy Sak, an official in Ukraine’s defense ministry, describing Russia’s claims to have technically taken control of Bakhmut last weekend as “bull—-.”
“We’ve been hearing this for months now,” Sak told CNBC Monday, referring to claims that Bakhmut is under Russian control.
“The reality is, and as our General Staff and military report, is that it’s not easy there, it’s pretty bad, and it’s been bad for the last three months and it’s not got any better. There has been a bit of a lull over the last few days which was quite unusual but it has intensified again. But Bakhmut stands, that’s the most important thing,” he said.
Ukrainian soldier of the Aidar battalion fires artillery in the direction of Bakhmut in Donetsk oblast, 4 April 2023.
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As for an indication as to when Kyiv might launch a counter-offensive, Ukraine’s defense ministry is understandably tight-lipped but Sak noted that preparations have to be made as he noted “being on the offensive is always much tougher than being on the defensive.”
“We’re not prepared to use our soldiers as cannon fodder. So unless our military command is confident that we have sufficient armor, sufficient number of tanks, sufficient artillery rounds, they will not make a move. That’s why we’re preparing for it. We’re preparing for it and we’ll go for it as soon as we’re ready.”
