Atlas Energy Solutions could jump in the next year as the public market newbie expands fracking-related operations in the Permian Basin, according to Barclays. Analyst Derek Podhaizer initiated coverage of the fracking stock at overweight with a price target of $25. His new target implies the stock could rally 46.8% over the next 12 months from where it closed Friday. Podhaizer said Atlas is the only public pure play for fracking in the Permian Basin, which is located in the Southern U.S. Atlas focuses on proppant, which is sand or other materials used to keep a hydraulic fracture open, and intergrative services. The stock, which began trading on the New York Stock Exchange last month , gained 2.5% on Monday AESI YTD mountain Atlas Energy Solutions since listing “We view AESI as uniquely positioned being the only public pure play in-basin Permian proppant provider with a growing logistics business with the goal to structurally change how proppant is delivered into the NAM supply chain through a first-of-its kind conveyor system called the Dune Express,” Podhaizer said in a note to clients Monday. “After a challenging IPO, we see AESI poised for a longer-term re-rating story as the company proves out its differentiated proppant delivery mode.” Investors had left the proppant market after a boom-and-bust cycle that stemmed from a massive oversupply after capital was poured in in an attempt to build out the industry, Podhaizer said. But after many companies saw margin deterioration followed by bankruptcies, Podhaizer said the weak players and bad actors in pricing have been wiped out in a Covid-induced trough that has been likened to the “great purge.” Capital discipline is now front of mind, he said, along with rationalization and consolidation. That’s helped bring supply-and-demand trends back to a place that can support margin expansion and cash flow generation. Supply is specifically tight for the Permian Basin, with a lack of peers planning buildouts like Atlas. Atlas’s buildout involved deploying an integrated trucking fleet and first-of-its-kind conveyor system called the Dune Express, Podhaizer said. He said this plan can help the company increase its presence in the basin and improve efficiency. Still, he noted there are some risks, especially considering the industry’s recent turmoil. He said investors may also be wary about paying for an asset that isn’t built yet and could find margins hard to like given that it’s a commodity market. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
