Recent advances in artificial intelligence may have some people worrying about job security — and with good reason. A report by Goldman Sachs predicts that as many as 300 million jobs could be affected by generative AI.
“If generative AI delivers on its promised capabilities, the labor market could face significant disruption,” the investment banker said in a research note (PDF) Sunday. Some two-thirds of US jobs are exposed to automation by AI, Goldman said, adding that of those positions affected, as much as 50% of their workload could be replaced.
“Although the impact of AI on the labor market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are thus more likely to be complemented rather than substituted by AI,” the report said. Some 7% of US jobs could be replaced by AI, Goldman estimates, with 63% being complemented by AI, and 30% being unaffected by it.
The technology, which can create new material on its own, represents “a major advancement with potentially large macroeconomic effects,” Goldman said. Widespread adoption of AI could increase the total value of goods and services created worldwide by 7% in the next 10 years, the report said.
Generative AI captured the public’s attention with November’s launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, a chatbot built on a powerful AI engine that can write software, hold conversations and compose poetry. Microsoft is employing ChatGPT’s technology foundation, GPT-4, to boost Bing search results, offer email writing tips and help build presentations.
Since then, there’s been a rush of Big Tech companies looking to capitalize on that breakthrough. Microsoft announced a multibillion-dollar expanded partnership with OpenAI to bring ChatGPT tech to its Bing search. Google, maker of the world’s most popular search engine, responded by revealing its ChatGPT rival, called Bard.
Citing a study that found 60% of the workforce are in occupations that didn’t exist in 1940, Goldman predicted that one quarter of all tasks performed in the US and Europe could be automated by AI. In the US, office and administrative support positions are at the greatest risk of task replacement (46%), followed by legal positions (44%) and architecture and engineering jobs (37%).
Jobs with the lowest exposure to AI include cleaning and maintenance, installation and repair, and construction jobs, Goldman found.
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