The death toll from the powerful earthquake that hit southern Turkey early Monday could reach as high as 10,000 people, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) said.
According to its estimates, USGS said there is a 47% chance of it reaching between 1,000 to 10,000 people, whereas there is a 27% chance of it reaching between 100 and 1,000 and a 20% chance of it reaching between 10,000 and 100,000.
The USGS estimates come from modeling based on historical earthquakes in the region, the population exposed to the heaviest shaking, and the vulnerability of the structures in the hardest hit zones.
“High casualties and extensive damage are probable and the disaster is likely widespread,” the USGS said in the report.
“The population in this region resides in structures that are extremely vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist.”
The report also estimates economic losses will likely be between $1 billion to $10 billion, which could reach up to 2% of Turkey’s GDP.
So far, more than 500 people have been confirmed dead and some 3,000 others injured in Turkey and Syria, according to officials and state media.
