Ukraine expects Russia to mobilize up to half a million additional soldiers in the coming months, according to a senior intelligence official.
Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, asserted in an interview that “Russia is going to mobilize 300,000 to 500,000 people in order to carry out offensive operations in the south and east of Ukraine in spring and summer of 2023.”
“Those 500,000 are in addition to the 300,000 mobilized in October 2022,” Skibitskyi said. “This proves that Putin’s Kremlin has no intention of ending this war. The Russian offensive may happen in Donetsk and Luhansk regions and possibly in Zaporizhzhia region. Russian troops will go on the defensive in Kherson region and in Crimea. This new mobilization wave will last up to two months.”
Russian officials have consistently denied that another mobilization is planned. But at a conference in December of Russia’s military chiefs, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed beefing up the armed forces to 1.5 million combat personnel from the current 1.15 million over a period of three years.
This was required “to guarantee the solving of problems related to Russia’s military security”, Shoigu said.
Skibytskyi also said that at the beginning of 2022, Defense Intelligence was aware that a “full-scale invasion was to begin in early February or a bit later….In January we saw troops from Russia’s Eastern Military District begin arriving in Belarus,” as well as preparations in Crimea.
At the time Ukraine publicly played down the prospect of a Russian invasion.
In the interview with “Ukrainian Technologies and Strategies,” Skibytskyi said that “the first days into the war were unfavorable for us, the enemy had advanced right up to Mariupol. But it is the resilience of Mariupol that ruined the Russian plans in the south of the country.”
He said that the defense of Mariupol had bogged down 10,000 to 12,000 enemy troops that had been earmarked for a push northwards to encircle Ukrainian forces defending the Donbas region. “Mariupol had played its part 100 percent,” Skibytskyi said.
He also claimed that the Russians were now “having considerable troubles with missiles. They used to produce not more than 200 missiles per year depending on a type. Now they can only produce four Iskander missiles per month. As for the Kh-101 missiles, it can be something like 20-30 depending on the stocks of imported components.”
The Iskander is a powerful and relatively accurate cruise missile.
Western analysts have also said they estimate that Russia is running low on inventories of some missiles.
Skibytskyi also provided a Ukrainian analysis of Russia’s offensive drone program. “As of today. they have used about 660 Shahed drones. The contract provides for 1,750 units. Delivery and preparation also takes some time. According to our data, they are about to have another batch for delivery.”
