AFC Championship Preview: Can Burrow’s Bengals stay perfect against Chiefs?

Ever since Patrick Mahomes’ stunning 13-second drive in last January’s Divisional Round matchup against Buffalo, and the brief-but-thrilling overtime that followed, the football world has been clamouring for another post-season showdown between the Chiefs and Bills.

The NFL’s competition committee went so far as to alter playoff overtime rules after Josh Allen sat and watched Mahomes’ magic like the rest of us, unable to throw a punch of his own. When Buffalo’s Week 17 game against Cincinnati was cancelled, the league mapped out a path to a neutral-site AFC Championship between Buffalo and Kansas City. A stadium was set, tickets sold.

But while that may have been the rematch we all thought we wanted to see hit the AFC Conference Championship stage, Joe Burrow had other plans. This is the rematch we need, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs proving themselves to be, without a doubt, the best teams standing in the AFC, both worthy of another trip to the Super Bowl.

While Kansas City’s had a stranglehold on the conference in the Mahomes era – in his five years as a starter, he’s never not appeared in the AFC Conference Championship – there’s one quarterback he hasn’t been able to beat. Joe Burrow’s Bengals are 3-0 against Mahomes, including a 27-24 win in last year’s AFC Championship to advance to the Super Bowl and another 27-24 victory this regular season. Their first meeting was just as close – all three games have been decided by just three points.

Unlike last year’s AFC Championship meeting between these two clubs, there’s no David-and-Goliath storyline here, no Cinderella run. This year, we know what the Bengals can do. Even the Vegas line can’t make up its mind about who the underdog is.

For a pair of teams that don’t share a division, they certainly know one another well. Here we go again.

How they got here:

After claiming the No. 1 seed for the fourth time in the Mahomes era, the Chiefs made quick work of their Divisional Round opponent. A 27-20 win, thanks in large part to a monstrous game from Travis Kelce, booked Kansas City’s ticket to their fifth straight AFC Championship – but the road wasn’t without its obstacles, including a high-ankle sprain that slowed (but didn’t stop) Mahomes en route to victory.

The Bengals’ path here, meanwhile, went through their own division with a home win against the Baltimore Ravens in the wild-card round followed by a trip to Buffalo for a good ol’ game of snow football. Touchdowns on their first two drives saw the Bengals essentially end the game in the first quarter, the defence holding up their end of the bargain by keeping Josh Allen without a TD pass and delivering a 27-10 victory to return to the conference final.

Bengals’ pressing question: Can Burrow stay perfect vs. Chiefs?

When he’s hot, he’s hot. And right now, riding a 10-game win streak into his second straight AFC Championship, Joe Burrow is hot. But he’s also got ice in his veins – that could explain his 8-0 career record when playing games below 40 degrees Fahrenheit, at least. A good omen for Cincinnati as they approach a chilly scene at Arrowhead.

If Burrow is to stay perfect against Mahomes and head back to the Super Bowl after losing it to the Rams last February, his offensive line will need to put up a pretty perfect performance, too – a tough task in the best of times, and even tougher in the wake of losing a trio of starters.

The patchwork line came close to perfection last week against the Bills, allowing just a single sack after Baltimore got to him four times in the wild card round, but against league sack leader Chris Jones and the second-best pass-rush in the NFL? Safe to say, this will be their biggest test yet.

Chiefs’ pressing question: How’s your ankle feeling, Patrick?

It’s the question he’s been asked daily since he went down awkwardly in a heap of Jaguars during the first half of last Saturday’s victory. The answer could very well decide whether Patrick Mahomes is Super Bowl-bound for the third time in his career.

All week, all eyes have been on Mahomes’ right ankle, every step documented – no boot during a Wednesday media session, not a limp to be seen during Thursday’s practice, and all steady on Friday, too.

While the injury, diagnosed as a high-ankle sprain earlier this week – visibly hindered his mobility in the second half of Saturday’s win, he was still really effective as a passer thanks in large part to one of the best offensive lines in the league, which held Jacksonville without a sack all game.

Mahomes said after Thursday’s practice his ankle felt “probably better than I expected” but even so, it’s fair to assume we’ll see more input from Kansas City’s strong run game to help ease some of the pressure. Running back Isaiah Pachecho has come up clutch often, while the emergence of Jerick McKinnon as a short-pass threat will be something to watch… especially if the Bengals’ defence can take away Mahomes’ top weapon…

Matchup to watch: Travis Kelce vs. Bengals’ defence

Hitting the field on Sunday will be no shortage of receiving talent capable of breaking the game wide open. Ja’Marr Chase, for one, could wreak havoc on a Chiefs secondary that’s struggled to defend the pass at times this year, while the Chiefs’ ever-underrated run game should factor in heavily considering Mahomes’ ankle. But when it comes to Sunday’s spotlight, there’s no question it’s fixed on Travis Kelce. In 16 career post-season games, Kelce has 14 touchdowns.

He’s coming off a historic performance last Saturday against the Jaguars, registering 14 catches (the most for a tight end in a single playoff game) for 98 yards and two touchdowns. And he’s in line to make more history this Sunday: rack up 54 yards against the Bengals, and he’ll pass Julian Edelman (1,442) for second place on the all-time playoff receiving yards list behind only the great Jerry Rice (2,245).

He’s Mahomes’ biggest, most versatile, and most trusted target and considering the QB could find himself limited at times, he’ll have to rely even more heavily on his safety net of a tight end. Granted, that might just work in favour of Cincinnati, whose defence has actually been pretty effective against Kelce. In Week 13’s loss to the Bengals, Kelce was limited to just four catches for 56 yards and no scores.

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