Here’s how things could shake out in College Football Playoff
USA TODAY Sports’ Paul Myerberg and Dan Wolken break down the college football playoff.
USA TODAY
An unexpected College Football Playoff berth has caused an eye-opening transformation to the goals and expectations around TCU, which was picked in the preseason to finish in the bottom half of the Big 12 but now stands among the top four teams in the entire Bowl Subdivision.
“Nobody anticipated us being here,” said TCU coach Sonny Dykes. “I think there’s been a lot of things that have occurred this year beyond people’s expectations.”
The standard has changed as the Horned Frogs prepare for the Fiesta Bowl as roughly touchdown underdogs against Big Ten champion Michigan, providing the potential for a dramatic boost to the direction of the program with few parallels in modern Bowl Subdivision history.
“Every time we get on a big stage like this, it’s an opportunity for us to create a bigger brand and create more credibility,” Dykes said. “We know that’s earned, certainly not given. We don’t want it to be given, but it all begins there where we go out and play well and people respect us, and we do it consistently.”
That comes with a challenge: Michigan is one of two unbeaten teams and the biggest threat to Georgia’s quest for a second championship in a row. But seven years after Clemson’s breakthrough as a party-crashing playoff interloper, the Fiesta Bowl hands the Frogs a similar opportunity to cement themselves among the select group of teams in annual contention for the playoff and national championship.
“I know we’re excited to get out there and kind of show what we can do. But it’s also big for TCU,” said senior offensive lineman Wes Harris. “I don’t think we’ve been on the map or a scale this big in quite a long time, so we’re excited to get out there and show what we can do and show what we can do against an opponent like this.”
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There are two ways this can go: with a win or even a close loss that establishes the Frogs’ credentials on this stage, or with an uncompetitive result that paints TCU as a one-off success story with more in common with last year’s playoff underdog, Cincinnati, than with Clemson.
Already, though, TCU has breathed fresh air into a repetitive postseason picture. With the same programs — Clemson, Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State — dominating the landscape, the Frogs represent a Cinderella story despite playing in a Power Five conference and being centered in one of the nation’s most talent-rich districts.
“I think our team has been a really gritty, competitive team that’s got a lot of confidence,” Dykes said. “That’s the key. When you have a team that can overcome deficits, it really comes down to a belief in each other and confidence in each other. And confidence comes from a work ethic and an understanding that our team has put the work in, paid the price, done what they need to do.”
TCU is beginning to see immediate benefits. According to 247Sports.com, this year’s recruiting class ranks third in the Big 12 and first among the league’s longer-term members, behind future SEC members Texas and Oklahoma.
Given the league’s upcoming shakeup — the Longhorns and Sooners could leave as soon as 2024 while four American programs, including Cincinnati, will join next season — TCU is in position to mirror Clemson’s ownership of the ACC and earn repeated playoff bids under the new 12-team format.
But every possible dynasty needs a spark. For Clemson, that came via bowl wins against Ohio State and Oklahoma in 2013 and 2014, respectively. One year later, the Tigers took Alabama to the brink in a narrow championship-game loss; one year after that, they took home the first of two national championships under Dabo Swinney.
In comparison, TCU has taken the express train from the back end of the Big 12. A disappointing 23-24 run in former coach Gary Patterson’s last four seasons, the Horned Frogs have been reborn under Dykes, who was hired just over a year ago from SMU.
“The past few years, I feel like we were just kind of getting like we got good potential to be up here,” wide receiver Quentin Johnston said. “We just put the past behind us and decide to really put our foot down and say, ‘We don’t need to be a one-off team anymore.’ We just worked with that attitude. We just kept going from there.”
Beating the Wolverines would qualify as the biggest upset in the nine-year history of the playoff format. Michigan has played just one game decided by a single-digit margin, narrowly escaping Illinois in November, but otherwise rolled through the Big Ten with exclamation-point wins to end the regular season against Ohio State and Purdue.
Across the board, the Wolverines represent the toughest test to date for a team that clung onto unbeaten status with a series of close wins in conference play. Michigan averages 40.1 points per game, seventh in the FBS, and allows 13.4 points per game, fourth nationally. The offense ran for at least 225 yards nine times, including 418 yards against Penn State and 225 yards on 7.2 yards per carry against the Buckeyes.
That TCU was pushed to the limit during the regular season — seven games were decided by one possession — has created some skepticism about the Frogs’ chances against the Wolverines and, more crucially, raised the question of whether this has been a magical, lightning-in-a-bottle season or the start of something more sustainable.
“You can win 12 games in a row but really, all of those games don’t mean anything,” said quarterback Max Duggan. “The past is not going to account for the future.”
