The exchange-traded funds market saw a big shift in 2022, and there could be more changes in leadership next year. Funds focused on yield and macro trends, like surging commodities prices, proved to be big winners over the past 12 months, while most growth-focused funds fell sharply. But some of those trends have started to reverse in recent months, and next year might not be so one-directional. While many Wall Street strategists see the S & P 500 rising over the next year , a first-half swoon followed by a second-half rebound is a popular call for 2023. That could make investing an active endeavor in the coming year, as investors react to the changing environment. Here’s how some ETF experts are viewing the year and what types of funds could be winners in 2023. Inflation and yield plays Inflation was a dominant theme of 2022 investing, with new funds like the AXS Astoria Inflation Sensitive ETF (PPI) attracting solid inflows and outperforming the broader market. While inflation is expected to recede in the year ahead, many are skeptical that the Fed will achieve its 2% inflation target in 2023. John Davi, founder and CEO at Astoria Portfolio Advisors, said investors should be prepared for inflation to be a long-term factor in their portfolios. “I just think there’s going to be a new steady state for how much things are going to cost. Obviously here in the U.S., anything that’s produced here is going to be more expensive. And there are certain areas of commodity prices that I think are going to remain very high,” Davi said. That means that some of the funds that performed well in 2022 could remain strong moving forward. Astoria’s top ETFs for 2023 include some yield-focused funds like the Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF (COWZ) and commodity funds such as the abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF (GLTR) . Another part of the inflation and yield story has been bond funds. Short-term bonds, whose prices have less sensitivity to higher rates, have outperformed strongly this year. For example, the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) has a total return of -3.7% this year, while the firm’s Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) has returned -27%. But for 2023, Astoria has both short and long-term Treasury funds in its list, suggesting that there may be a more balanced outlook in the fixed income space as the U.S. economy slows down. “In a recession, the back end of the curve historically has done well because rates fall and the back end is very sensitive to that,” Davi said. Thematic investing Thematic ETFs have been a big growth area in recent years, with fund providers creating narrower sector funds to meet growing demand. However, with the economic outcome uncertain, it might be difficult to identify broad trends in 2023. “We definitely think thematic investing is able to mitigate a lot of the cyclical factors in our economy… In 2023, investors should be a lot more selective,” said Pedro Palandrani, director of research at Global X ETFs. One area that could see strength is infrastructure, both traditional and clean energy. While those areas would be negatively affected by a recession, infrastructure spending approved earlier in the Biden administration could help create solid demand even if the U.S. consumer weakens. “Infrastructure spending is not immediate. It’s not like in November 2021 we saw the [Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act] passing, and all of a sudden in the following quarter we were going to see a trillion dollars in the toplines of the infrastructure companies. That’s not how it works,” Palandrani said. Similarly, iShares highlighted the U.S. Infrastructure ETF (IFRA) and the MSCI Global Agriculture ETF (VEGI) in its 2023 outlook as potential winners, in part due to their inflation-hedging properties . But with many Wall Street pros expecting different environments in the first and second half of 2023, picking one or two themes and riding them out for the full year may prove costly. Davi, for example, recommends investors take a barbell approach with an eye toward making adjustments to their portfolio as the economic environment changes. That situation could make active funds more intriguing in the year ahead. “My belief is we’re moving back into an environment where there’ll be more dispersion within sectors. And that there’ll be more of a benefit to either active management or what I would look at as quant — having factors within portfolios,” said Chris Huemmer, senior investment strategist for FlexShares ETFs at Northern Trust Asset Management. Styles and regions For all the concerns about the direction of the U.S. economy, the outlook isn’t much better in other parts of the world. In fact, it might even be worse. Northern Trust’s outlook has an equal weight rating on developed markets and is underweight on emerging markets. Within the more mature economies, the U.S. looks like a safer bet, Huemmer said. “More likely to have a recession in Europe, while in the U.S. there is less sensitivity to energy prices. Maybe the U.S. has a slowdown instead of a recession,” Huemmer said. That could mean that investors would be better off paring back their international bets in the year ahead. Investors may be more comfortable playing it close to the vest in size and style as well. Small-cap stock funds, which have less exposure to growth names, and value products are two groups that could be popular in 2023, according to strategists. “Throughout history, small caps traded at a premium to the market. It’s only been in the last 5 to 10 years with FANG stocks that it has been the other way around,” Davi said. In iShares’ 2023 outlook, the firm identified its MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE) and Core S & P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) as two funds that could benefit from a low-growth environment.
