What’s left for Blue Jays in free agent outfield market

Speaking with media Monday, Toronto Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins left little ambiguity as to his front office group’s next off-season goal.

“Most of our focus has been on run prevention,” Atkins said, citing the additions of Erik Swanson, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Kiermaier. “Now, we’ll shift to offensive improvements.”

And what shape might that offensive improvement take?

“The easiest way to do it is to think about an offensive, ideally left-handed complement to our team,” Atkins said. “And the easiest way to think about playing time is in the outfield at this point.”

Now, it’s certainly possible the Blue Jays address that via trade. They may have to if they’re aiming to raise the team’s offensive ceiling — a word Atkins used multiple times on Monday.

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Toronto’s young catching trio of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno has been, and will continue to be, the focus of speculation until something gives. And the Blue Jays haven’t traded from within their development system this winter. They could still cash in minor-league futures for present-day major-leaguers if they so choose.

But the easiest path is via free agency, an area in which Atkins said the Blue Jays “are not limited financially.” The problem is this winter’s market of left-handed hitting outfielders was shallow to begin with and has only thinned out since as Brandon Nimmo, Masataka Yoshida, Andrew Benintendi, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Michael Brantley and Joey Gallo came off the board.

What’s left? Not much in the way of ceiling. But some interesting potential options should the Blue Jays fail to find a trade partner. Here are 11 of the left-handed hitters that played outfield last season who remain available.

Michael Conforto

It says something about how picked-over this market segment is that the far-and-away best option remaining last played 15 months ago. Not to mention the fact he produced a relatively ordinary .232/.344/.384 line with a 106 wRC+ in that most recent full season. Nor the substantial uncertainty surrounding his health.

But such are the circumstances of the free-agent pool and Conforto’s calamitous entry into it, which saw the right fielder struggle through a disappointing walk year in 2021, have his value submarined by a qualifying offer and injure his right shoulder during MLB’s lockout, an ailment that ultimately required surgery and cost him his age-29 campaign.

Before all that, Conforto was a highly productive, heart-of-the-order force, batting .259/.358/.484 with a 128 wRC+ from 2015 through 2020. He played all three outfield positions in his mid-20s, eventually finding a home in right field where he graded as a well above-average defender with excellent arm strength. If he’d continued producing through his walk year and hadn’t hurt his shoulder, Conforto would’ve easily been looking at signing a nine-figure free-agent deal.

Be he didn’t and he won’t. Conforto’s now seeking to prove he’s still the All-Star-calibre player he once was, re-establishing his value so he can cash in during future off-seasons. That opens pandora’s box of creative, short-term contract constructions built around opt-outs, incentives or options. And Conforto’s agent, Scott Boras, has negotiated plenty of those in the past to help other clients facing uncertain markets maximize their earnings.

For what it’s worth, Conforto still posted his typically strong chase (81st percentile) and walk (87th) rates throughout 2021’s struggles and you can make a case he deserved better results for the quality of contact he made. The negative gap between Conforto’s xwOBA (.350) and actual wOBA (.322) was the 19th largest across MLB that season. And the gulf between his xSLG (.436) and actual SLG (.384) was the 15th widest. Those are strong process indicators.

But that was a long time ago and a lot’s happened since. Can Conforto still flash plus-arm strength and high-exit velocities after shoulder surgery? How much runway will he need to regain his sea legs against big-league pitching after a year off? It’s a complicated situation fraught with uncertainty. Signing Conforto comes with a lot of risk. But whichever club takes it on also opens itself up to the potential reward.

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Jurickson Profar

It’s been a long, strange journey for Profar from entering 2013 as MLB’s consensus No. 1 overall prospect at shortstop to finishing 2022 as a league-average left fielder. Over the decade in between, he’s moved through three organizations, repeated shoulder injuries and practically every position on the diamond, which is either a damning reflection of his waning utility or a commendable account of his perseverance and versatility, depending on your perspective.

Either way, the switch-hitter played an everyday role for a club that went to the NLCS last season, hitting .243/.331/.491 with a 110 wRC+ for the San Diego Padres. He graded a little above or below average in left field, depending on your preferred defensive metric and finished with 2.5 fWAR — a career-high by far and a remarkable improvement from the -0.7 he produced in 2021.

Profar’s been alternating above- and below-average seasons like that for five years running now. His exit velocities and barrel rates have long been unimpressive, but he’s overcome that by demonstrating excellent strike-zone management, posting 82nd percentile or higher marks since 2021 in strikeout, walk, whiff and chase rate. Still, the volatility in his results makes it tough to tell which version of Profar a club will be signing for entering his age-30 season.

Going forward, Profar could be a disciplined, high-contact producer capable of fielding all over. Or he could be sub-replacement level without a true defensive home. Something as fluky as batted-ball luck could prove the difference between those above or below average outcomes, making Profar an uncertain bet with limited upside.

David Peralta

Despite a power dip after his deadline trade from Arizona to Tampa Bay, Peralta still finished 2022 with above-average offensive numbers, slashing .248/.316/.415 with a 104 wRC+. That’s more or less in line with what the veteran’s been doing throughout his steady, productive MLB career. And even as he enters his mid-30s, he’s produced 1.7 fWAR each of his last two seasons and ranked within MLB’s 86th percentile in outs above average.

That’ll play. What increasingly won’t is Peralta’s bat against left-handed pitching, which he’s hitting .238/.302/.361 against for his career and increasingly been shielded from over the last two seasons. But as a platoon piece capable of providing above-average defence in either outfield corner plus good-enough speed on the basepaths, Peralta would be an easy fit on any competitive team’s bench.

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Tyler Naquin

Naquin boasts eye-opening raw tools, including one of the game’s strongest outfield arms and maximum exit velocities ranking within the top 15 per cent of the league each of the last two seasons, yet hasn’t proven durable enough or playable enough against left-handed pitching to get the most out of them. But he’s seen the most consistent playing time of his career over the last two years and held his own at the game’s highest level, batting.252/.311/.454 with a 102 wRC+.

Naquin has played plenty of centre field, but his limited range and huge throwing arm make him best suited for right entering his age-32 campaign. And there’s little reason to use him in a consequential plate appearance against a left-handed pitcher considering his dramatic platoon splits since 2021 (113 wRC+ vs. righties; 49 wRC+ vs. lefties). But when deployed in circumstances that play to his strengths, Naquin can provide plenty of value in a part-time role while flashing some big Statcast measureables along the way.

Rafael Ortega

Ortega bounced between a half-dozen organizations before finally establishing himself as an MLB regular over the last two seasons with the Chicago Cubs, producing a .265/.344/.408 line with a 108 wRC+ while proving an unspectacular-yet-playable defender at all three outfield positions. But that wasn’t enough to convince the Cubs to tender him a contract this winter — MLB Trade Rumors estimated Ortega’s arbitration salary at $1.7-million — as the club sought a centre-field upgrade and found it in Cody Bellinger.

Entering his age-31 season, Ortega won’t hit for much power but works a strong plate appearance, evidenced by his solid strikeout (19.9 per cent), walk (11.9), chase (25.8) and contact (81.6) rates in 2022. He’ll even steal you a base every now and then (Ortega has swiped a dozen bags each of the last two seasons).

The 122 wRC+ Ortega posted in 2021 was perhaps inflated by a .349 BABIP, but the 96 wRC+ with a more-reasonable .285 BABIP he produced in 2022 isn’t anything to sneeze at from a fourth outfielder. Ortega’s isn’t a sexy profile. But it’s a useful one in a bench role.

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Ben Gamel

A steady platoon piece for the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers throughout his mid-20s, Gamel was DFAed only a month into the 2021 season after getting off to a miserable start in his first year with Cleveland’s organization. But he found a home via waivers with the Pittsburgh Pirates and turned things around, batting .242/.337/.383 with a perfectly league-average 100 wRC+ since.

The 30-year-old doesn’t grade well defensively in either outfield corner, but he provides a pesky plate appearance against right-handed pitching with a 112 wRC+ and 13.9 per cent walk rate against the opposite side of the platoon over the last two seasons. Gamel’s never hit for much power but makes up for it by drawing free passes at a high clip (10.2 per cent career walk rate) and stubbornly refusing to expand the zone (80th percentile chase rate in 2022). High on-base, left-handed bats don’t grow on trees and some team somewhere ought to have room for Gamel’s on its bench.

Jake Lamb

It was a tumultuous 2022 for Lamb, who began the year on a minor-league deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, fought his way to the big-leagues by June, was traded to the Mariners at the deadline and found himself DFAed in the final days of the season after scuffling down the stretch.

It isn’t easy to be consistently productive through so much upheaval, but Lamb showed strong flashes at times. He started the year on a tear at triple-A, batting .290/.395/.537 with a 131 wRC+ and 15 homers in 61 games; he posted a .771 OPS over 25 games with the Dodgers before his trade; and he finished 2022 with a 105 wRC+ at the major-league level, despite finishing the season in a miserable slump.

The 32-year-old is far removed from the 29- and 30-homer campaigns he put up with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2016 and ‘17. His strikeout rate’s surged since because fastballs he once punished have begun missing his bat. But Lamb’s are still well above-average chase rates and he walked in 10.8 per cent of his plate appearances while bouncing around a half-dozen organizations over the last three seasons. And the career third baseman’s demonstrated versatility during that time, logging innings in left and right field.

Adjustments are likely needed to help Lamb make more consistent contact. But there’s little questioning the quality of it when he connects, as Lamb has produced barrel rates of 11.6 and 11.9 per cent in the majors in 2021 and 2022, respectively. This is the kind of big-measurables bat that data-driven teams take low-cost fliers on, hoping to be the ones holding on if he suddenly puts it all together.

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Robbie Grossman

After a strong, two-season run in which he hit .239/.354/.430 with a 118 wRC+ across 863 plate appearances between 2020 and 2021, Grossman crashed to earth last season, batting a paltry .209/.310/.311 — good for an 82 wRC+.

The switch-hitter’s 11.7 per cent walk rate was as robust as always — Grossman has walked in 12.8 per cent of his career plate appearances — yet the 33-year-old misplaced nearly all of the power he demonstrated in his 23-homer 2021 season and ran the highest full-season strikeout rate (27 per cent) of his career. You can throw those indicators into the concerning pile, right along with Grossman’s 10th percentile or worse ranks in barrel and hard-hit rate last season.

The best-case scenario is that he was playing hurt or struggling with a correctible flaw in his swing. The worst-case is that he’s no longer able to produce solid contact against pitches in the zone. The former would be manageable and lend hope to a bounce-back, considering Grossman’s strong track record. But the latter could eat into the elite walk rates that have long supported Grossman’s production as pitchers grow less wary of challenging him on the plate.

Either way, Grossman has long proven more productive against left-handed pitching, and those splits became even more dramatic in 2022, as he posted an .879 OPS against lefties vs. a .509 when facing righties. That suggests he could be better suited for a platoon role going forward on the opposite side of the one the Blue Jays are hunting for.

Cesar Hernandez

A second baseman by trade, Hernandez made 10 appearances in left field and nine at third base last season with the Washington Nationals, demonstrating the defensive versatility that could make the switch-hitter a useful bench piece. But any club buying in will need solutions for the 32-year-old’s puzzling offensive drop-off over the last 12 months.

Hernandez, who entered the season with a 98 wRC+ for his career, produced a paltry 79 wRC+ with a .248/.311/.318 slash line in 2022. He followed up 2021’s 21-homer campaign by leaving the yard only once over 617 plate appearances. He flashed a maximum exit velocity of 110.8 mph — consistent with his career norm and within the top third of the league — but his 84.8-mph average on balls in play was among MLB’s lowest, suggesting something’s gone awry with his swing.

Is there a way to help Hernandez tap back into his power more consistently and recapture the league-average offensive production he provided earlier in his career? Any team signing him had better be sure of it lest they sign up for another year of what may be a sudden, early-30s decline.

Sportsnet’s MLB Off-Season Tracker

Keep up with all the latest MLB signings and trades throughout the winter as teams make a push for the 2023 season.

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Dominic Smith

There are few better examples of the caution required when citing numbers from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season than Smith, who hit .316/.377/.616 with a 166 wRC+ over a 50-game sample that year. It wasn’t entirely out of line with the .282/.355/.525 line and 134 wRC+ he posted over 82 games in 2019. But it looks now to have absolutely been the high-water mark of his career, as Smith has hit .233/.298/.435 with an 82 wRC+ over 194 games since.

Still, shoulder issues coupled with the New York Mets’ crowded outfield and first-base mix didn’t do Smith any favours, as he spent much of the last two seasons either playing hurt, filling a part-time role or stuck at triple-A. That’s the needs-a-change-of-scenery trifecta. And, at only 27, Smith has plenty of physical prime remaining to recapture the pedigree that made him a top-100 prospect before his 2017 debut.

Corey Dickerson

Entering his age-34 season, Dickerson’s days as a 2-3 fWAR regular are well behind him. But he’s proven capable of producing at a league average clip in a strict platoon role over the last three seasons, batting .266/.313/.403 since 2020 — good for a 97 wRC+. His extremely limited arm essentially anchors him to left field, but he’s still quick enough and gets decent enough jumps to hold his own at the position when he isn’t serving as a DH and pinch-hit option against right-handed pitching.

With annually low strikeout and walk rates, Dickerson’s production relies on his ability to find good results on balls on play. The 112.1-mph maximum exit velocity he demonstrated in 2022 — an 82nd percentile mark — helps in that regard. But Dickerson doesn’t strike the ball that hard with any consistency, regularly running average exit velocities that rank toward the bottom of the league. There’s little ceiling in that profile. But there ought to be a relatively stable floor as well, provided Dickerson doesn’t suddenly lose his feel for putting the bat on the ball against righties.

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