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NFL Week 13 betting preview: AFC Championship rematch in spotlight

NFL Week 13 betting preview: AFC Championship rematch in spotlight
NFL Week 13 betting preview: AFC Championship rematch in spotlight


Week 13 is shaping up to be a good one with a handful of marquee matchups plus a few rivalry games.

The Cardinals and Panthers are the only two teams on bye during a week that features an additional five divisional matchups following Buffalo’s Thursday win over AFC East rival New England.

Here’s a look at the Week 13 board with betting lines, totals, tidbits, and picks.

 

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SPREADS & TOTALS

Denver Broncos (+8.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) | Over/Under: 39.5
Cleveland Browns (-7.0) at Houston Texans (+7.0) | Over/Under: 46.5
Washington Commanders (-1.5) at New York Giants (+1.5) | Over/Under: 40.0
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.0) at Detroit Lions (+1.0) | Over/Under: 51.5
New York Jets (+3.0) at Minnesota Vikings (-3.0) | Over/Under: 44.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.0) at Atlanta Falcons (+1.0) | Over/Under: 42.5
Tennessee Titans (+4.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Chicago Bears (+3.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) | Over/Under: 46.5
Seattle Seahawks (-7.0) at Los Angeles Rams (+7.0) | Over/Under: 40.5
Los Angeles Chargers (+1.0) at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.0) | Over/Under: 49.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) | Over/Under: 52.5
Indianapolis Colts (+10.5) at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
New Orleans Saints (+3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) | Over/Under: 40.5

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The Broncos have scored 14 offensive touchdowns as we enter Week 13 and are a league-best 10-1 on unders so far this season. Baltimore is 7-4 on unders in 2022.

Deshaun Watson makes his first start with the Browns against his former team in Houston. Two-thirds of the public is siding with the Browns to cover the converted touchdown. Watson went 28-25 in his four seasons with the Texans (15-12 in games at Houston’s NRG Stadium).

Washington has covered or pushed in seven consecutive games. The road team has covered five in a row when the Commanders and Giants meet. The under has hit in 18 of the past 22 meetings that took place at MetLife Stadium.

Detroit is 7-4 ATS on the season (4-2 ATS at home), while Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS on the road.

The Vikings are getting Dalvin Tomlinson and Akayleb Evans back from injury against Mike White and the Jets. Will it help Minnesota’s 32nd-ranked pass defence that allows 276 yards through the air per game? White threw for 315 yards and three TDs last week in his first start of the season.

Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their past six after covering each of their first six games of the season.

The Titans are riding an 8-1 streak of covering. Tennessee has covered in five consecutive road games while the Eagles have covered five of their past six home contests.

Green Bay has covered the spread in 23 of the past 30 games against Chicago.

Expect plenty of motion in a potential Super Bowl preview between the Dolphins and 49ers.

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The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their seven most recent games against the Rams, 2-8 ATS in the past 10 games when L.A. was the home team.

The underdog has covered 19 of the past 27 when the Chargers and Raiders meet.

The potential game of the week — and possible AFC playoff preview — between the Chiefs and Bengals has the highest total of the week. The under is 8-3 the past 11 meetings between Kansas City and Cincinnati.

Dallas leads the NFL with 45 sacks (and has given up the fewest), while Indianapolis has allowed the most sacks. Pray for Matt Ryan.

The Saints are 0-3 ATS playing against fellow NFC South teams. The Bucs are 1-2 ATS in divisional games with that lone win being against New Orleans back in Week 2.

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MIKEY J’S CARD…

(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll be sharing some picks for the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long. 2022 overall record to date: 83-107-4)

Favourites ATS (19-25-1): Raiders -1.0, Commanders -1.5, Vikings -3.0, Eagles -4.5,

Underdogs ATS (25-21-3): Falcons +1.0, Lions +1.0, Bengals +2.5, Texans +7.0

Overs (7-20): JAX/DET 51.5, CLE/HOU 46.5, NO/TB 40.5, DEN/BAL 39.5, MIA/SF 46.5, NYJ/MIN 44.5

Unders (19-25): LAC/LV 49.5, PIT/ATL 42.5

Moneyline dogs (14-18): Bengals, Falcons, Lions

After a Week 12 that saw my picks go a laughable 5-13, some are asking: is Mike the worst gambler on the planet? Well, honestly, that’s entirely possible. I mean 26-45 on totals is hilarious (hopefully you’ve been fading!), so this week I am fading myself on the totals you see above. Is the strategy genius or will it completely backfire? We’ll know by early next week.

(Listed odds above via Covers as of Friday and subject to change)

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