Senate election results 2022: Arizona, Georgia and Nevada will decide control of the Senate

Control of the United States Senate is going to come down to the wire — and maybe a runoff election in Georgia.

Here is where things stand as of 1 pm ET on Wednesday.

Democrats need 50 seats to retain control of the Senate; Vice President Kamala Harris would continue to give them the tie-breaking vote for the next two years. Republicans need 51. As of Wednesday morning, both parties have the magic number within sight. Democrats control 48 seats and Republicans hold 48, with four races still too close to call. The GOP is going to win in Alaska, with two Republicans vying for the seat, leaving the two parties even at 48 seats, with three races still truly up for grabs.

Coming into Election Night, the race for control was tight: Of the 35 seats at stake this election, nine were truly in play, according to Cook Political Report, a group that conducts nonpartisan political analysis. Republicans needed to net just one Senate seat to take back the majority, but it’s not clear they are going to get it despite the race seeming to turn in their favor in the last few weeks of the campaign. Long-shot bids to topple Democratic incumbents in Washington state and New Hampshire fell far short. Even in the closer races, Republicans have yet to gain ground.

These are the five Senate races still to be called: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Alaska will end up in Republican hands; it’s just a question of which Republican, as incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is locked in a close race with a challenger from her own party, Kelly Tshibaka. But the other four races will determine which party holds control of the chamber for the next two years.

The Senate seats that are still in play

Arizona: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is looking to win his first full six-year term against Republican challenger Blake Masters. He’s ahead, as of Wednesday morning, with about two-thirds of the expected vote counted.

Kelly was propelled to office in a 2020 special election to fill a vacant seat after his career as an astronaut and provided Democrats with a key vote for their legislative agenda in the last two years. Masters drew some enthusiasm from the GOP base as an unabashed hard-right candidate, but he was also a prominent example of Republicans nominating an extreme candidate in a swing state. If the party ends up falling short in its bid to take over the Senate, expect a lot of agonizing over the quality of the candidates (or lack thereof) that the GOP put forward in pivotal campaigns this year.

Georgia: Incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock is leading narrowly over Republican Herschel Walker. But Warnock is also just shy of the 50-percent threshold necessary to avoid a runoff election. In Georgia, if no candidate clears 50 percent in the November election, a runoff election will be held in December between the top two vote-getting candidates (which will be Walker and Warnock). Warnock is putting up a strong defense in 2022 after his narrow 2020 win handed the Democrats their current Senate majority, likely aided by scandals over Walker’s previous affairs and revelations he had paid for abortions despite saying on the campaign trail he was staunchly anti-abortion.

Democrats won their current Senate majority after runoff elections in 2020 put Warnock and Sen. Jon Osoff (D-GA) in office. If the Senate majority hinges on a runoff there again next month, there will be an enormous blitz of campaigning and ad spending over the next few weeks.

Nevada: This is looking like the best chance for Republicans to pick up a seat. Republican Secretary of State Adam Laxalt leads Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto narrowly as of Wednesday morning. Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected to the Senate, appears to be suffering from an unfavorable environment for Democrats in the Silver State, as the current Democratic governor also looks to be in trouble in his reelection bid.

However, the race is still close to call — and it may take some time to be called. Laxalt is ahead, but a trove of mail-in ballots expected to favor the Democrats needs to be counted over the next few days. This race will be a squeaker either way, given the way the vote tally looks so far.

The swing Senate races that are already called

There is actually only one Senate seat that’s changed hands so far — and it flipped to the Democrats.

Pennsylvania: After a very tight battle, Democratic candidate John Fetterman defeated Republican Mehmet Oz to flip the Republican-held open seat in Pennsylvania. He’ll replace retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey. Pennsylvania was one of the most fiercely contested races in the country, attracting a ton of money and campaign appearances from President Joe Biden and his two immediate predecessors in the final days of the campaign. The race saw an unexpected twist earlier in the campaign when Fetterman suffered a stroke, and Oz appeared to close the gap as the race wound down.

But thanks, in part, to the strength of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro at the top of the ticket and a more favorable environment for Democrats overall, Fetterman ended up winning on Tuesday without having to sweat it too much.

And long-shot Republican opportunities that appeared to be in play if the out-of-power party had an excellent night across the board quickly slipped away Tuesday night once it became clear a red wave was not going to materialize. Most notably:

New Hampshire: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan comfortably won reelection after a few weeks of tight polls, Republican confidence, and Democratic anxiety. Hassan beat GOP nominee Don Bolduc, a far-right candidate who claimed Trump won the 2020 election and supports the rollback of abortion rights.

Update: November 9, 1:15 pm ET: This story has been updated to reflect the Wisconsin winner.