Lula served two successful terms as president from 2003 to 2010, where he tapped into an epochal commodity boom to lift millions of Brazilians out of poverty through far-reaching welfare programs. But the years that followed his presidency saw an economic downturn, while a vast corruption scandal implicated much of the Brazilian political establishment — and led to Lula himself going to prison in 2018, only for the country’s Supreme Court to order his release in 2019 and later annul the charges against him.
Bolsonaro occupied the far-right fringes of Brazilian politics for much of his political career, notorious for his penchant for making misogynistic and bigoted remarks, as well as spouting nostalgia for the years of military dictatorship. He rode a wave of popular discontent as an anti-establishment candidate and won the presidency in 2018 elections. His turbulent four years in power were marked by scandals, a bungled response to the coronavirus pandemic and a brand of polarizing, hard-right politics that critics feared was fraying the bonds binding Brazil’s young democracy.
Lula, a genuine working-class hero who lost a finger in a factory accident, was perhaps the sole figure who wielded enough popular appeal to counter Bolsonaro’s movement. Now, he has little time to bask in his triumph.
A ‘Brazilian Biden’ defending democracy
At the time of writing on Monday, Bolsonaro had not conceded defeat, even though election authorities had confirmed the results Sunday night and numerous world leaders, including President Biden, had congratulated Lula and cheered the passage of free and fair elections in Brazil. Bolsonaro had not said anything publicly at all (though one of his sons issued a somewhat cryptic tweet urging supporters not to “give up on our Brazil”).
For months as president, Bolsonaro called into question the integrity of Brazil’s electoral processes despite scant evidence to back his claims. Now, stewing in defeat, he may take yet another page out of former president Donald Trump’s playbook, point to the slim margin of Lula’s victory as a reason to question its legitimacy and spend the interim period before Lula’s inauguration complicating the political transition.
“This is the Trump model,” said Marcos Nobre, a political analyst and author, to my colleagues. “That’s to say, the one who won the election fair and square is illegitimate. Bolsonaro will seek to weaken Lula in every way.”
“Does he hold tight, demand a vote audit and spark a constitutional crisis a la Trump in 2020?” my colleagues asked. “Or, because his conservative movement did far better than expected, does he solidify a strong position as Brazil’s most powerful opposition leader since the return of democracy — using his massive social media platform as a bully pulpit to complicate Lula’s job? Or, as some have suggested, does he leave Brazil to escape the possibility of criminal prosecution?”
Lula, on the other hand, has cast himself as a conciliatory figure, eager to represent the whole nation, revitalize trust in its civic institutions and return the country to a degree of calm and democratic normalcy. As Brazilian essayist Bruno Cava put it, he “presented himself as the candidate of the system, as a ‘Brazilian Biden,’ so to speak, putting an end to a Trumpist interlude.”
Lula’s election campaign pulled in a broad coalition of parties and politicians, including former political adversaries. After the election, a number of key Bolsonaro allies also called on the incumbent to recognize the result for the good of the country. “It is time to disarm the spirit, extend your hand to your opponents,” House Speaker Arthur Lira said.
But, like Biden, Lula must contend with significant legislative and political opposition from an emboldened right that will nurse grievance over this lost election. The head winds of the global economy — and a maelstrom of misinformation on social media — will buffet his agenda.
Yes, everything indicates that Latin America will have another leftist president in Lula in Brazil and the anti-incumbent trend continues. But the probable margin of victory is so narrow as to refute the idea of another “pink tide” in the region.
— Michael Reid (@michaelreid52) October 30, 2022
In his first stint in power, Lula seemed to be South America’s preeminent and most beloved leftist leader. He was the titan among a “pink” wave of elected left-leaning governments across the continent and his relative pragmatism stood him in contrast to more autocratic and demagogic left-wing regimes in places like Venezuela and Cuba.
Now, Lula returns to power at another such moment in the continent’s politics. Since 2020, left-leaning governments took power in Bolivia, Peru, Chile and Colombia — the latter long ruled by the right. There is no simple narrative to tell about their ascent, but it all took place in the shadow of the pandemic, which exposed underlying social inequities within many countries, especially in Latin America.
“It is more of a rejectionist trend than anything else … people looking for an alternative,” Michael Shifter, former president of Washington-based think tank Inter-American Dialogue, told AFP. “We are in that moment in Latin America where a lot of the governments that are being rejected are of the right or the center right.” And the pendulum may quite swiftly swing the other direction if voters believe these governments have failed to deliver in the years to come.
In terms of foreign policy, it’s hard to see Lula casting himself as an ideological fellow traveler of Biden the way Bolsonaro did for Trump. He may reprise the position his government took back over a decade ago, touting Brazil’s role as a champion of the Global South, while standing at a distance from the West and taking up independent positions on a host of thorny geopolitical challenges.
Like Bolsonaro, Lula may equivocate about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — he even said in an interview earlier this year that leaders in both countries shared blame for the war. Unlike Bolsonaro, Lula likely won’t pander to evangelical voters by embracing Israel and chumming up to right-wing demagogue Benjamin Netanyahu, who could return to power after elections Tuesday.
Toutes mes félicitations, cher @LulaOficial, pour ton élection qui ouvre une nouvelle page de l’histoire du Brésil. Ensemble, nous allons unir nos forces pour relever les nombreux défis communs et renouer le lien d’amitié entre nos deux pays.
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) October 30, 2022
Under Bolsonaro, the deforestation of the Amazon region — described for years as the “lungs” of the world — accelerated precipitously. He cut away at environmental protections and undermined the government agencies tasked to enforce them. An estimated 2 billion trees were cut or burned down during his time in power, as his administration tacitly worked to boost the interests of Brazilian agribusiness. Between the summers of 2019 and 2021, an expanse of forest larger than the entirety of Belgium vanished. According to a study published by the journal Nature last year, parts of the Amazon rainforest have gone from being a net carbon sink to another source of emissions.
That’s worrying for all those concerned about the planetary effects of global warming and the international community’s struggle to combat climate change. Lula has vowed to turn back the page and to rein in deforestation, as he previously did in office. One analysis forecast that Lula’s victory could lead to a near 90 percent drop in Amazon deforestation over the next decade.
“Brazil is ready to resume its leading role in the fight against the climate crisis, protecting all our biomes, especially the Amazon forest,” Lula said after his victory.
