PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES
Election Day is almost here, and millions around the country have already cast their vote. With this in mind, we wanted to use the last wave of our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll before the midterm elections to dive deeper into which issues are driving Americans’ decision-making in the final weeks of the campaign.
Using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, we’ve been asking the same 2,000 Americans about their biggest concerns and what they think about both major parties in the lead-up to the elections. This time around, we devoted much of our time analyzing the views of likely voters. We examined how different issues could affect their vote choices, their attitudes toward Democrats or Republicans and their perceptions of the parties’ values.
In each of our surveys this year, “inflation or increasing costs” has ranked as the most important concern for the country, and it was no different this time around, as 65 percent of Americans selected that issue. This marked a new high in any of our six waves of issue polling, an indication that concerns about inflation have risen ahead of the election — a potentially beneficial political development for Republicans, who as the out-party can capitalize on the public’s economic concerns. Rounding out the top three issues were “political extremism or polarization” (32 percent) and “crime or gun violence” (28 percent). Meanwhile, “immigration” and “climate change” ranked fourth and fifth at 21 percent and 16 percent.
But with the election right around the corner, we wanted to take a closer look at the views of likely voters. Overall, our poll found likely voters split evenly at 41 percent over whether they planned to vote for a Democrat or a Republican in the upcoming congressional election, about the same as in our September wave. But because most likely voters will vote Democratic or Republican, we asked the other respondents — those who were undecided, planned to vote for an independent or third-party candidate, would not vote or skipped the question — which major party they would support if they had to choose, as voters who lean toward one party tend to vote for that party. Even with those responses incorporated, however, likely voters remained almost evenly divided: Forty-nine percent said they would back a Democratic candidate, and 48 percent a Republican one. Nearly all self-identified Democrats and Republicans planned to vote for their respective parties, while independents preferred Democrats over Republicans, 49 percent to 42 percent.
However, in a development that could redound to the GOP’s advantage, 63 percent of likely voters named inflation as a top concern for the country. Republican likely voters have consistently been more likely to name inflation as a leading issue, and 77 percent did so in the sixth wave. But 44 percent of Democrats and 65 percent of independents also indicated rising costs were a top issue, high-water marks for both groups across our polling. And the latter figure might be especially important because independents who named inflation as a top issue broke 54 percent to 36 percent for Republicans when we asked them to choose a party.
But while likely voters were split on which party they planned to vote for, they largely felt that neither party had earned the right to govern after November. Overall, 51 percent of likely voters said Democrats hadn’t earned another two years controlling the federal government, while 39 percent said they had. Among independents, 50 percent said Democrats didn’t deserve another two years and 34 percent said they did, while Democrats and Republicans mostly answered in accordance with their party.
Yet things were no better for the GOP, as 55 percent of likely voters also said Republicans had not made a good case for why they should be given control of Congress for the next two years, compared with 35 percent who said they had. Notably, 61 percent of independents said the GOP had not, while just 27 percent said they had (once again, Democrats and Republicans largely answered in line with their partisan views).
We also asked respondents why they felt each party had or hadn’t earned the right to govern. Sixty-eight percent of likely voters who didn’t think the Democratic Party should have continued control said its policies and plans were moving the country in the wrong direction. A 41-year-old Republican multiracial woman from Oklahoma said that Democrats “create tension between groups who feel marginalized at the expense of the country to create an emotional frenzy that will drive people to the polls. I am a former Democrat and feel disgust at the lack of morals or ethics shown by the party.” Among those who thought Democrats should continue to govern, 44 percent cited their belief that Democrats were moving the country in the right direction, while 17 percent cited their work to pass major and important legislation. Another 19 percent also said Democrats should have control simply because they were “better than the Republicans.”
As for those who wanted Republicans to control Congress, 51 percent cited GOP policies and plans, while 28 percent answered because “Democrats are ruining the country.” Just 13 percent answered that they thought the GOP would do a better job dealing with the economy, although some voters thinking about inflation or rising costs may have indicated that they broadly preferred Republican policies. Meanwhile, there wasn’t one obvious reason why some likely voters felt the GOP shouldn’t have power: Thirty-six percent said GOP policies and plans would move the country in the wrong direction, 30 percent said Republicans had not presented a clear plan for what they would do in Congress, and 16 percent felt Republican “values and beliefs were bad or wrong.” When asked to describe the values and beliefs of the GOP, a 72-year-old woman from California who identified as a Democrat wrote, “The current group calling themselves the Republican Party are a corrupt group who are no longer disguising their true intentions, which are solely to create immense personal wealth and power for themselves.”
We also wanted to know what voters thought were the values and beliefs of the two major parties. Overall, almost 79 percent of likely voters said they understood the values and beliefs of each party “very” or “somewhat” well, but there were some notable, if unsurprising, differences. About 9 in 10 Democrats and Republicans said they knew their party, whereas around two-thirds said the same of the opposition. Meanwhile, about 80 percent of independents said they understood each party.
When asked to describe the values and beliefs of the opposing party, likely voters didn’t hold back. A 28-year-old man from California who identified as a person of color and a Democrat said the GOP aims to “protect the rich and corrupt, lie and gaslight to fool citizens, utilize religion and the media to control the narrative, and reinstate racism and division.” Meanwhile, a 37-year-old white woman from New Hampshire who identified as a Republican argued Democrats “want people dependent on the government” and “are in favor of murdering babies and keeping people poor.”
Of course, it’s not all negative attitudes toward the opposing party. Some Republicans have drawn a line against their own party on issues such as abortion: “The party has also lost itself in the abortion debate and does not seem to want to understand a balance between fetal rights and women’s reproductive rights and health,” said a 60-year-old white man from Georgia. On the other side of the aisle, a 38-year-old white man from Florida complained about his party, the Democrats, paying “lip service to progressivism while maintaining the status quo.”
In less than two weeks, how voters weigh the interplay of these issues, policy preferences and partisan loyalties will help determine the results of the 2022 midterm elections. Republicans have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about capturing the House, while control of the Senate looks very much up for grabs. After the election, we plan to examine what voters have to say about those results and what they think about our political system moving forward. But until then, we’ll have to wait and see how the midterms play out.
Art direction by Dan Dao. Copy editing by Maya Sweedler. Story editing by Santul Nerkar.
