Aaron Blake: “For months, Democrats’ polling gains, strong special-election performances and surprising leads in key Senate races have come with important caveats.”
“Those caveats? The party that holds the presidency loses the vast majority of midterms, and the fundamentals — both President Biden’s approval rating and perceptions of the economy — still pointed to a tough 2022. What’s more, the polls have been off in recent elections (usually overestimating Democrats’ prospects when they are) — and what happens if and when Republican-oriented voters come home to candidates they might not love?”
“It appears to be happening. And those caveats now appear in effect, with the GOP’s chances of winning both chambers growing.”
Nate Silver: “If this was the stock market, you’d say ‘we’re officially into bear market territory’ for Democrats.”
