It’s always best to have a plan.
You’re definitely not going to stick to the plan, but when the betting gods blow up your preconceived notions, it’s nice to look back and go “It was a great plan.”
I like to go into every NBA season with a handful of teams to fade, teams to ride, and player props to keep an eye on. I applied this tactic when I was picking the playoffs last season, grabbing the over on Andrew Wiggins’ rebounds any time the number dipped to 7.5, or betting on the Milwaukee Bucks against the spread whenever they found themselves underdogs for a game.
The goal: Identify teams and players that the market is overvaluing or undervaluing, and zigging where the market zags.
So let’s get zigging.
Editor’s Note: Gambling problems aren’t only about losing money. They occur on a continuum, and can affect a person’s whole life. To learn more about developing a healthy relationship to gambling, and to find resources for support, click here.
Tip 1: Fade the Lakers
I’ve been hammering this point all off-season. The Lakers flat-out sucked last season, they haven’t made significant upgrades and Lebron James is probably going to move into second place on the NBA’s all-time minutes played list this year.
“But Anthony Davis and Lebron barely played together and we’re great when they’re both on the floor!”
True, two years ago. Last season on the other hand, the Lakers were only 11-11 with Davis and James on the court.
If rookie coach Darvin Ham can do something no one has ever done in turning Russell Westbrook into a happy bench player, I might change my mind. For now, I’m going into the season planning to bet against the Lakers at essentially every turn. The fact that they’re one of the league’s preeminent public money teams makes betting against them even sweeter.
Tip 2: Ride the Celtics, Bucks and Warriors
This is simple: Boston, Milwaukee and Golden State are in a tier unto themselves at the top of the league. Barring injuries, I don’t think any other team is going to win the title this season. Perhaps the Clippers if everything breaks right, or the Sixers if James Harden doesn’t realize the playoffs have started.
The bonus here is I think betting markets are undervaluing all three of these teams. Milwaukee because it’s easy to forget how amazing they are when they were so banged up when we saw them last. Boston because their slow start in 2021 belies just how good this team truly is (and because their head coach was suspended for the year just before training camp started). The Warriors because of The Punch Heard Round The World and because predictive models frankly hate this team.
It’s all noise. The Warriors, Bucks, and Celtics are the class of the NBA. Treat them as such. Especially when they’re playing at home.
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Tip 3: Fade teams you think are tanking
French wunderkind Victor Wembanyama might be the best prospect we’ve seen since Lebron James graced the cover of Sports Illustrated as a teenager. He’s almost certainly the best big-man prospect since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar went by the name Lew.
Oh, and assumed second-pick Scoot Henderson could become one of the all-time great draft consolation prizes. The point is: this season could see one of NBA history’s greatest races to the bottom. My list of tanking teams is San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Utah, Houston and Indiana. I don’t include Detroit and Orlando because they’re a bit too frisky for me, but those two teams along with squads like the Hornets, Knicks, Wizards and Trail Blazers are an injury or a slow start away from going “screw it, let’s just tank.”
Wembanyama is just that good.
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Tip 4: Ride the scoring over for the best player on the worst teams
I’ll be honest, this tip is built around one player: Keldon Johnson. He’s a very good player, but he’s probably the NBA’s worst “best” player. There is little doubt he’s the best player on the Spurs, but only because the rest of that roster is straight dogwater. This is the NBA, where even the worst teams score more than 100 points per game. And someone has to score those points.
Guys like Johnson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Green and even Buddy Hield (as long as he remains a Pacer) are what I’m looking at. I highlight Johnson because it’s plausible his over/under number is around 20.5. I love the over on that, probably up to 22.5.
Tip 5: Ride Andrew Wiggins’ rebounding over (again!)
After winning a championship as the Warriors’ best rebounder, averaging 7.5 boards per game throughout a playoff run to cap off a season that completely reversed public perception of him, the books still haven’t adjusted their expectations for Wiggins. He has found his role as the team’s best rebound chaser (apologies to Kevon Looney).
His rebounding total is set at 6.5 at most books for Golden State’s opening night game against the Lakers. As was the case during the playoffs last year, I’m riding the over for Wiggins at anything 7.5 and below.
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Tip 6: Stay away from the Clippers, Hawks and Nets
I recognize this isn’t the case for everyone, but I hate unpredictability. I don’t mean regular “I don’t know if Player A or B is going to show up tonight” unpredictability. I mean for Atlanta, Brooklyn and the Clips, I could see them ending up in the play-in as much as I could see them maximizing their potential as title-contenders. I know some bettors love that feeling when you get a high-variance pick right. Who doesn’t? You know what feels even better? Consistently cashing out your winnings. And these teams top my “Too Scared To Invest” list.
Of course, when in-season results invariably prove my pre-season thoughts to be rubbish, the hidden Tip 7 is… fade me.
As always, only bet what you can afford to lose. Play safe and don’t chase.
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