If you’re looking to watch young talent and future faces of the league (if not current), then the Southwest Division is appointment viewing.
At the top, it’s the Memphis Grizzlies – one year more experienced after a breakout campaign. The Dallas Mavericks come close behind, always dangerous with MVP candidate Luka Doncic, but with gaps to fill after losing a key player for nothing this off-season.
The New Orleans Pelicans might be more interesting than the rest. After an exciting run late last season, now they have Zion Williamson back in the fold.
As for the San Antonio Spurs, well, Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell are interesting prospects? I tried. At least the Houston Rockets have some young guns really worth paying attention to.
Let’s dive in.
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Last season’s results: 56-26 record, first in Southwest Division, second in Western Conference, lost in second round.
2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 48.5 total wins this season and +1493 to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.
Projected starting five: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr., Steven Adams
Noteworthy arrivals: Danny Green (out with ACL injury), David Roddy, Jake LaRavia
Noteworthy departures: De’Anthony Melton, Kyle Anderson, Jarrett Culver
Team outlook: The Grizzlies broke out last season with a franchise record-tying 56 wins and made it to the second round for the first time since 2015.
So what did they do this off-season to bolster their lineup with hopes of pushing even further? Well … nothing.
Memphis is essentially running it back, without Kyle Anderson or De’Anthony Melton, and as the over/under win total might suggest, Grizzlies fans should probably temper expectations that the team is coming back this season with something bigger.
They’ll be good, they’ll make the playoffs, but the West is stronger: Kawhi, Zion and Jamal Murray are healthy, the T-wolves added Rudy Gobert, so 56 wins is a high benchmark.
Is it the end of the world if the Grizzlies take a slight step back? No, this is a team whose three best players (Morant, Jackson Jr., Bane) are 23, 23 and 24. They can be great for a long, long time if they play their cards right.
Best-case scenario: The Grizzlies’ depth was a big reason for their success last season, going an impressive 20-5 without franchise player Morant in the lineup. Now without Anderson and Melton, who played 21 and 22 minutes a game, that’ll be put to the test.
Memphis has a knack for finding diamonds in the rough at the NBA Draft (Bane was drafted 30th overall!), so in a best-case scenario it happens again and their depth remains a strong point. The Grizzlies have Jake LaRavia (19th overall) and David Roddy (23rd) coming into the fold.
Beyond that, Memphis should hope for something similar to last season: more progress from Morant, Bane and Jackson and more playoff experience. I’d say title aspirations are a little out of reach for now, but you never know.
Worst-case scenario: The fall-off is even sharper than expected. Bane, who was a revelation last season, comes down to earth. Morant is less consistent throughout the year and Jackson faces health issues. No one steps up to fill the voids off the bench. The Grizzlies finish outside the West’s Top 6.
Last season’s results: 52-30 record, second in Southwest Division, fourth in Western Conference, lost in Conference Final.
2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 48.5 total wins this season and +1436 to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.
Projected starting five: Luka Doncic, Spencer Dinwiddie, Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, JaVale McGee
Noteworthy arrivals: Christian Wood, JaVale McGee
Noteworthy departures: Jalen Brunson, Sterling Brown, Boban Marjanović, Trey Burke
Team outlook: The Mavericks are coming off a Conference Finals appearance by way of taking down a 64-win Phoenix Suns team with some serious blowouts, but their outlook doesn’t feel as good as it should.
The big story of Dallas’ off-season was losing Jalen Brunson to the New York Knicks, something the Mavericks could have avoided by offering him a good contract during the season. Brunson went on to have a stellar post-season, highlighted by a 41-point performance without Doncic in Round 1, and got the bag in New York.
Now, even after adding talented big man Christian Wood, the Mavericks are in a weird spot where, beyond Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie, no one can really handle the ball.
I know what you’re thinking, why need more ballhandlers when you have Luka Magic? But he can only get so far without another true game-changer by his side.
Dallas, much like Memphis, will be good and will make the playoffs, but it’s tough to say the team will be better this season.
Best-case scenario: Doncic will be Doncic, the Mavericks need not worry about that, but who steps up after him?
A best-case scenario is if Wood, who so far is only proven as a good stats, bad team guy, really thrives as Doncic’s pick-and-roll partner. Then Dallas will need Dinwiddie to be just like the guy who joined the team at last year’s trade deadline, instead of the guy who shot 38 per cent from the field in Washington before it.
Worst-case scenario: Doncic gets no help, Wood doesn’t work out and losing Brunson really hurts them. Then the Mavericks are in a position where they’ll either have to pay Wood or lose him for nothing, even if it wasn’t the greatest fit, and they have little ways to make major improvements via free agency as a team that is projected to only have $18 million to spare before entering the luxury tax.
Last season’s results: 36-46 record, third in Southwest Division, ninth in Western Conference, lost in first round.
2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 44.5 total wins this season and +2762 to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.
Projected starting five: CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, Zion Williamson, Jonas Valanciunas
Noteworthy arrivals: Dyson Daniels.
Noteworthy departures: Tony Snell.
Team outlook: Now this is an NBA League Pass team. The Pelicans are coming into this season with swagger. Wasn’t long ago that this team was in the dumps, but last season changed the outlook.
Brandon Ingram continued his rise as a star in this league, New Orleans made an unexpected win-now move by acquiring (and extending) CJ McCollum and rookie Herb Jones showed he could be a core player for years. In the end, the Pelicans snuck into the play-in and triumphed into a first-round series, where they gave the No. 1 seed Suns a serious scare.
Oh, and we haven’t even mentioned Zion yet. Williamson is back and healthy after missing the entire last season, and looks in better shape than ever before.
Plug his thunderous dunks, contagious smile and 27-7-3 on 60 per cent shooting stat line into the mix, and you’ve got great vibes in New Orleans.
Best-case scenario: The team continues its momentum from last season and Williamson blends in well.
We have yet to see Williamson and Ingram truly thrive together, we also have yet to see McCollum and Williamson play together at all beyond the pre-season. If they figure it out, you’re suddenly looking at one of the NBA’s most exciting teams in New Orleans.
In a best-case scenario, this team stays competitive all season, gets into the playoffs and makes some noise. A real building block toward contending in the coming years.
Worst-case scenario: It’s simple to say, but the worst-case scenario is that Williamson can’t stay healthy. As much as the Pelicans can make positive strides and build without him, the team’s ceiling hinges on his health and development into a top player in the league.
In the limited time we’ve seen him play he’s been phenomenal, now just imagine what could happen if he gets a consistent run of health.
Last season’s results: 34-48 record, fourth in Southwest Division, 10th in Western Conference, lost in play-in.
2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 23.5 total wins this season and +45800 to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.
Projected starting five: Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, Doug McDermott, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl
Noteworthy arrivals: Jeremy Sochan Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley, Isaiah Roby, Gorgui Dieng
Noteworthy departures: Dejounte Murray, Lonnie Walker, Jock Landale
Team outlook: Well, just look at that projected starting five. The expectations are not exactly high in San Antonio.
The Spurs, as the Dejounte Murray trade signalled, are finally going for a full-on rebuild after 22 consecutive years in the playoffs followed by three seasons of trying to remain competitive. There’s no two ways about it, the Spurs are going to be bad – and not even Gregg Popovich can save them.
Frankly, he may not want to. Waiting on the other end of the NBA Draft Lottery is a slender Frenchman by the name of Victor Wembanyama, like Tim Duncan and Tony Parker had a baby.
This season is about developing some young players already on the roster, such as Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Tre Jones, and looking forward to the young players to come.
Best-case scenario: A repeat of 1997. When David Robinson went down with an injury in 1996-97, the Spurs punted on the season, going 20-62, and won the draft lottery before selecting Duncan first overall. Five titles later, it’s considered maybe the best “tank job” in NBA history.
Well, the Spurs will try to add another entry to that shortlist this season by plummeting and landing Wembanyama. That’s the ultimate goal.
Worst-case scenario: Popovich is too stubborn to tank, still tries his best to win every game and somehow drags this Spurs team to 30 wins – just good enough to be outside the Top 5 picks, but just bad enough to miss the play-in.
Last season’s results: 20-62 record, fifth in Northwest Division, 15th in Western Conference, missed playoffs.
2022-23 season betting odds: +47400 to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.
Projected starting five: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Eric Gordan, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun
Noteworthy arrivals: Boban Marjanović, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, TyTy Washington Jr.
Noteworthy departures: Christian Wood, David Nwaba, Dennis Schröder
Team outlook: The Rockets have had a couple brutal seasons in their post-James Harden era, having gone 37-117, and they’re likely due for another here – but it might at least be a little more exciting.
Houston has some great prospects to work with as it climbs out of its rebuild. Jalen Green, rookie Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun and Kevin Porter Jr. make the Rockets another League Pass-worthy team, despite the numerous losses they’re likely to pile up.
So this season, like previous years, probably looks like a bit of a tank, only this time around the Rockets will hope the team takes real strides in its development, and that franchise centrepieces Green and Smith build real chemistry.
Best-case scenario: Striking gold in the draft lottery is certainly ideal, but Houston will want its players to make some strides this season. In a best-case scenario, Green makes a significant jump and looks like a bonafide star, and Smith Jr. looks worthy of having gone first overall instead of third.
The 20-year-old Green showed serious flashes last season, averaging 22 points after the All-Star break, but was ultimately an All-Rookie Team snub. He’s an extremely athletic guard, who can both posterize opponents and knock down step-back threes. Could he take off this season?
Worst-case scenario: Just like San Antonio, and Utah, and Oklahoma City, or any team that is going to be bad this season. The worst-case scenario is that you’re not bad enough, because it’d be a shame to go through all that losing and not end up with Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson at the draft.
For Houston, it’s a little more true. The Rockets need to hit on their draft pick because next season’s first-round selection is owed to the Oklahoma City Thunder (remember when the Rockets traded Chris Paul and two first-rounders for Russell Westbrook??). Luckily, the pick is Top 4 protected.
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