Jonathan Bernstein: “Very few people will confess to being such loyal followers of their political party that they automatically adopt whatever positions it takes. Most voters like to think of themselves as independent: They have their own opinions on the issues, and they support candidates, not parties.”
“People are not necessarily wrong to think like this — as the political scientists Chris Achen and Larry Bartels have written, voting decisions can genuinely feel this way. But this is not how most voting decisions are made. Political parties shape public opinion far more than most people realize, as this year’s congressional campaigns illustrate.”
“Consider the issue of abortion. It is conventional wisdom that the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade will benefit Democrats in November, because people who care deeply about abortion rights are now more likely to vote. But there is a sizable group of voters who aren’t particularly focused on abortion — and they are guided not so much by their own views of the Dobbs decision, but by their party’s view of it.”
