Cowboys, Bills and more picks for NFL Week 3 | Lorenzo’s Locks
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three favorite picks heading into Week 3 of the NFL season.
Lorenzo’s Locks
Go ahead, allow yourself to visualize. When pondering a matchup of marquee quarterbacks Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, it would be natural to see points galore. A shootout. Two of the most prolific gunslingers in NFL history (and one of them with seven Super Bowl rings) airing it out at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday for old time’s sake.
Well, think again, guided by a reality check: It’s 2022.
Granted, it’s only Week 3. But it’s still striking that the Green Bay Packers quarterback who won his fourth league MVP award last season and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers icon who led the NFL in passing yards, TDs, completions and attempts in 2021, have so far this season looked a lot like Average Joes.
Sure, it’s a long season.
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We’ve seen Brady stumble before in September, only to rumble to the stage in February to clutch another Lombardi Trophy.
We’ve heard Rodgers issue classic messages this time of year, as was the case in 2014 when the Packers and their 28th-ranked offense sputtered to a 1-2 start. “Five letters here just for everybody out there in Packer-land: R-E-L-A-X,” he cautioned on his radio show. “Relax. We’re going to be OK.”
He was right. The Packers finished 12-4 in 2014 and led the league in scoring 30.4 points per game. They advanced to the NFC title game and Rodgers won his second MVP trophy.
So, with TB12 and A-Rod providing living proof, we can get into a heap of trouble reading too much into what happens with September football. Then again, patterns start somewhere.
If this is Brady’s farewell tour (no, he hasn’t declared that, but he’s 45 and in his 23rd NFL season), it’s a shame that the most stunning highlight came with smashing a poor tablet in frustration on the sideline at the Caesars Superdome on Sunday.
Brady, who retired for 40 days last spring to kick off an unusual series of events, had a rough go of it in the first two games as the Bucs (2-0) have won more with a defense allowing the fewest points in the NFL than with a passing game ranked 23rd in the league. It might be a stretch to suggest that Brady’s brief retirement, his 11-day training camp hiatus and reports of strife in his personal life have anything to do with it, but the typical efficiency has been lacking. The turbulence might also be linked to issues relating to his supporting cast.
The Bucs have been forced to rebuild the O-line, due to offseason departures and a huge training camp injury to center Ryan Jensen. They rank 30th in the league in red zone TD rate (25%), allowing us to wonder how it might have been different if tight end Rob Gronkowski didn’t retire. And the wide receiver corps stung by injuries to Chris Godwin and Julio Jones has had to take another hit with Brady’s best target, Mike Evans, suspended for Sunday’s game after his key role in a brawl at the Superdome.
Fast fact: Mac Jones, the current New England Patriots quarterback, has a higher passer rating (83.2) than the legendary former Patriots quarterback (82.8).
Rodgers can relate. After leading the NFL last season with a 111.9 passer rating, his current mark of 94.5 is 12th. That’s better than Brady’s efficiency mark, but not quite as high as the ratings that the much-maligned Geno Smith and Daniel Jones, among others, have posted.
Of course, maybe the numbers are different if Rodgers were still throwing to big-play receiver Davante Adams, who was traded to Las Vegas during the offseason. Rodgers can lean on a 1-2 punch in the running game with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, yet it’s odd to see the Packers (1-1) fielding the 20th-ranked passing game and a star passer who is 23rd for attempts.
“Any time you have Aaron, you’re going to have a formidable offense,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles said, offering up some context. “He’s so smart and so pinpoint, he makes other players better.”
Bowles could have been talking about his own quarterback, Brady. He knows. Stuff can flip in a hurry in this week-to-week league.
“Like us,” Bowles added, “they’re trying to get into sync, too, and win some games while they do it.”
In head-to-head matchups, Brady is 3-1 against Rodgers. This includes the Bucs winning the NFC title game at Lambeau Field in January 2021 and Tampa Bay smashing the Packers at RJS earlier in that 2020 campaign. In that last visit to Tampa, Rodgers was sacked four times in a 38-10 romp.
Rodgers is 3-5 lifetime in games played in Florida, but that’s not the most challenging indicator this time around. It’s the fifth-ranked Bucs defense, which has allowed just 13 points this season (6.5 per game), leads the NFL with 10 sacks and has forced six turnovers (second-most in the league). Opposing quarterbacks have a combined passer rating of 54.6, the second-lowest in the NFL.
Bowles, promoted from defensive coordinator to replace Bruce Arians, has maintained some continuity with the unit by still handling play-calling duties.
“Their defense is fantastic,” Rodgers told reporters this week. “Two great guys inside. Great front. Really solid backend. And a great guy calling it. Recipe for a lot of people stopping people consistently.”
The Packers’ defense could be just as challenging for Brady as it ranks fourth in the league against the pass and 10th overall for yards allowed.
In other words, the quarterbacks may be featured on the marquee but the best defense on Sunday could ultimately steal the show. Imagine that.
