Jaguars, Panthers and more picks for NFL Week 1 | Lorenzo’s Locks
Lorenzo’s Locks is back. Lorenzo Reyes has been covering the NFL for almost a decade, and he’s going to bring you his 3 “locks” every week.
Lorenzo’s Locks
The Buffalo Bills’ rout of defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, 31-10, signaled a new season Thursday. And for the second season of USA TODAY Sports’ NFL Hot Tix and Pix, we are changing the mold as well.
Given the difficulty even sharp players experience with betting full-game point spreads, we’re paying more attention to totals as well as first-half and first-quarter spreads.
WEEK 1 PICKS: Which NFL teams have the edge heading into the season opener?
Week 1 Odds: Moneylines, point spreads, over/under for every game
After our weekly survey of the nation’s bookmakers and veteran players, here’s a list of the most popular bets (Hot Tix) and the games that are drawing the most fervent attention from sharps (Hot Pix).
(All figures furnished by Tipico Sportsbook)
HOT TIX
Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) at New York Jets
Are bettors backing the idea that Lamar Jackson will ride the scorn of not extending his contract with the Ravens? Likely not.
But the former NFL MVP is a prohibitive choice to outplay the Ravens’ former Super Bowl-winning quarterback Joe Flacco, 37.
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This is the most popular play at WynnBet, with the line moving 2.5 points in Baltimore’s favor. At Caesars, 85% of the total handle is on the under 44.5.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (over 52.5)
A whopping 88% of the handle bet on this total at Caesars Sportsbook are on the over. Bettors favor the idea that the Chargers’ Justin Herbert and Raiders’ Derek Carr will light up the scoreboard in the first shootout for AFC West supremacy.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (over 44.5)
In Monday night’s homecoming for Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson, bettors have increased the total by four points at WynnBet and 3.5 points from its opening figure at Caesars.
Adam Pullen, Caesars’ assistant director of trading, says Wilson alone is causing the trend.
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“The Broncos needed an injection into their offense, and he’s one of the best quarterbacks in recent memory,” Pullen said. “Those standalone games are usually going to take more over action.”
Denver has also moved three points to stand as a 6.5-point favorite in the game at WynnBet, making the Broncos that shop’s second-most popular pick.
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (over 53.5)
Nearly 88% of the handle at Caesars is on this over, and bettors have moved Patrick Mahomes and the defending AFC West-champion Chiefs three points to -6 at WynnBet.
The dome affair at State Farm Stadium lends itself to a touchdown onslaught despite the focus on the Chiefs losing receiver Tyreek Hill. Arizona’s Kyler Murray adds “Hollywood” Brown to his offense, but he’s missing the suspended DeAndre Hopkins.
Carolina Panthers (-0.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
This is perhaps the highlight game of “Revenge Week.” Baker Mayfield’s starting position on the Panthers has moved the number as sharply as five points.
The return of Christian McCaffrey to Carolina’s backfield and Mayfield’s push for redemption against the team that cast the former No. 1 pick aside has drawn support from casual bettors, who tend to give more weight to the emotional intangibles of a game.
HOT PICKS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (under 50.5)
Sharp bettor Bill Krackomberger says he’s come to believe betting NFL point spreads is an unprofitable venture, so he targets opportunities like this one.
Tom Brady, interrupted by a personal issue which caused him to miss some preseason work, has a banged-up offensive line. The Cowboys, meanwhile, had to replace their injured left tackle — situations that portend some defensive dominance.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders (under 43.5)
Losing his job in Indianapolis after an inept season-finale showing against Jacksonville that cost the Colts a playoff spot, Washington’s Carson Wentz confronts the same Jaguars in this season’s opener.
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They know how to play him, obviously, and sharps have leaned on the under knowing Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence has new coach Doug Pederson. The Jaguars will, however, get running back James Robinson back from a torn left Achilles.
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USA TODAY
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (over 48.5)
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts returns from a playoff visit, incentivized by persisting rumors that his team will replace him in the draft if he flounders this season.
Landing Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Brown, and facing traditional punching bag Detroit, should tell much about Hurts — and sharps like Krackomberger are believers.
The line has also moved 2.5 points to -6.5 in the Eagles’ favor at WynnBet, making it their fourth-most popular play.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (under 44.5)
A staggering 80% of the handle on this game at Caesars is on the under. The deep respect for the “Steel Curtain” and sincere disrespect for new Pittsburgh quarterback Mitchell Trubisky remain.
New York Giants (+5.5) at Tennessee Titans
This is a tough one to swallow and follow as New York’s woeful 2021 quarterback Daniel Jones goes on the road to meet Derrick Henry and the returning AFC No. 1 seed.
But the line has moved a point in the Giants’ favor, and the return of running back Saquon Barkley, with the creative offensive mind of new coach Brian Daboll, are viewed as trending-upward assets. The Titans may still be reeling from their sudden playoff ouster.
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