Jeremy Grantham, famed investor with a history of calling market crashes, said Wednesday the burst of multiple-asset bubbles he’s been warning of has yet to occur despite 2022’s extreme volatility. “The current superbubble features an unprecedentedly dangerous mix of cross-asset overvaluation (with bonds, housing, and stocks all critically overpriced and now rapidly losing momentum), commodity shock, and Fed hawkishness,” Grantham said in a note published Wednesday . “Each cycle is different and unique – but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.” Grantham, the co-founder of Grantham Mayo van Otterloo in 1977, is a widely-followed investor and market historian with a track record of identifying market bubbles. He foresaw the 2008 bear market and the dot-com bubble-bursting of 2000. The 83-year-old investor said superbubbles take multiple stages. After the bubble forms and a setback happens, like it did in the first half of the year, there will usually be bear market rallies before the market hits the bottom, he said. “Bear market rallies in superbubbles are easier and faster than any other rallies,” Grantham said. At the intraday peak on August 16, the S & P 500 had recovered 58% of its losses from its June low. The magnitude of the bear-market comeback looked “eerily similar” to other historic superbubbles during 1929, 1973 and 2000, Grantham said. Grantham said the next leg down for the market is likely to be driven by falling profit margins. He also pointed to a number of near-term problems including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fiscal tightening and China’s Covid outbreak. In May, when the S & P 500 was down about 20% from its all-time high, Grantham called for stocks to at least double their losses. Now the S & P 500 is 17.9% off its peak as of Wednesday’s close. “If history repeats, the play will once again be a Tragedy,” Grantham said.
